Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
559 FXUS63 KOAX 062007 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 307 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A line of strong storms is on track to move through southeastern Nebraska into southwestern Iowa early this evening, bringing chances for damaging wind, hail and an outside chance (less than 5%) for a tornado along and south of Interstate 80. - Elevated river levels linger on the Missouri River from Nebraska City and and points downstream, and should continue to lower through the weekend. - Temperatures remain below or near seasonal normals through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Today: GOES IR imagery this afternoon alongside regional radars shows strong convection ongoing across south-central Nebraska into northwest Kansas with damaging hail, wind gusts, and several funnel reports with a lead supercell in NWS Hastings` area. An 18z surface analysis shows a surface low located in far southwest Nebraska with a warm front/differential heating boundary extending ENE across southern Nebraska before washing out in eastern Nebraska. The ongoing convection to the west of the forecast area is still on track to congeal into a larger cluster of storms, moving eastward based on nearly westerly Corfidi propagation vectors. Reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates extend about halfway into the forecast area from the west and sufficient CAPE and effective shear support this cluster or bow of storms to continue eastward eastern Nebraska, limited on the north end by leftover cloud debris and cooler temperatures as a result of limited daytime heating. What is most likely is that this congealed bow or cluster of storms moves through southeast Nebraska, staying along and south of Interstate 80 passing Lincoln between 6 and 8 PM, potentially clipping the Omaha Metro between 7 and 8 PM, and then into northwest Missouri and far southwest Iowa between 7 and 9 PM while weakening over time. Wind gusts as strong as 70 mph will be possible alongside quarter-sized hail, with an outside chance of a tornado embedded in the line as it passes Saline/Seward/Lancaster Counties. By the time the storms system has passed through the area, it`ll be around 10 PM with a few light showers trailing the main line of storms to the east with a cooler night in store with lows expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s. After midnight, the low-level just is expected to be in full swing with it nosing across eastern Nebraska and Iowa, where light rain and a few rumbles of thunder will bring light rain to portions of the area heading into Sunday. Sunday and Beyond: By mid-Sunday morning, scattered shower activity with a few areas of embedded thunder are expected to continue at least into the early afternoon, largely powered by the incoming cold front and stronger mid-level shortwave pivoting southeast. We`ll be pretty limited in terms of instability and shear, though some areas of small hail are possible during the afternoon hours with the strongest storms. Any remaining light shower/storm activity is expected to be out of the area by around midnight Sunday night, leaving drier conditions heading into next week. By Monday, a southwesterly jet streak will be pointing from eastern Kansas and Missouri and will be largely locked into place through the rest of the work week. We`ll see temperatures rebound from the relatively cool upper 70s on Sunday to the mid/upper 80s on Friday, with no really strong front at the surface to scour out the remaining moisture left across the forecast area. As a result, well see near daily chances for very isolated pulse storms commonly seen during the late summer. While those chances will be daily, they aren`t expected to be widespread and shouldn`t be a large hurdle for summertime activities during this stretch of nice weather. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Scattered shower and storm activity is building in closer to the KOMA TAF site, wafting eastward between KOFK and KLNK with the best chances for brief showers initially being from 20 to 22z. After that point, a stronger line of storms is expected to move in form the west, primarily affecting KLNK and KOMA from 00-02z. Wind gusts as strong as 65 mph and quarter-sized hail will be possible with the strongest parts of the line of storms. Beyond that, variable winds are expected overnight, remaining at less than 10 kts through 18z tomorrow. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...Petersen