Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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503 FXUS63 KOAX 060343 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1043 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated river levels linger on the Missouri River from Nebraska City and and points downstream, and should continue to lower through the weekend. - Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday afternoon and evening. - Temperatures remain below or near seasonal normals through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Today: Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts broad troughing in place across much of the central CONUS with a building ridge over the West Coast and eroding ridging along the East Coast in anticipation of the aforementioned trough. A recent surface analysis depicts a surface low over Lake Michigan, dragging a cold front south then southwest across the mid-Mississippi Valley into and then through central Texas. Behind the front, a confluent zone stretching from north-central North Dakota to northwest Iowa has resulted in locally higher dewpoints of 60 degrees or more despite being in the post- frontal part of the system to the east. Shallow cumulus speckle visible satellite imagery with deeper convection developing in that aforementioned moist/confluent zone. Isolated to scattered rain chances carry us through the early part of the evening, primary in western Iowa where there`s a 20 to 25% chances of showers and storms grazing our far eastern counties. Through the rest of the day, we`ll hit our cooler-than-average highs in the upper 70s to just over 80 degrees and see winds die down considerably overnight. Those calm winds and leftover moisture do open up the door for some possibility of fog, but it isn`t quite a consistent signal, and any areas that do get foggy will be largely limited to portions of Iowa. Saturday and Sunday: By Saturday morning, elevate convection is depicted by many of the CAM solutions in central Nebraska, powered by low-level jet nosing pointed into a more moist airmass and as a result realizing elevated instability. This initial activity should remain relatively weak through the morning before daytime heating and increased instability take hold, with additional storms likely developing to the south and west into northwest Kansas. These storms will likely grow upscale and form a line of storms as it moves eastward. Steep mid-level lapse rates indicate that hail will be one of the primary threats joined by damaging wind thanks to large temperature/dewpoint spreads and the resultant higher DCAPE. As of right now, the primary window for those strong to severe storms appears to be from 3 to 9 PM. Additional showers and storms continue to be possible Sunday for a good chunk of the day, this time forced by the arriving mid/upper shortwave with a 50-70% likelihood. Thankfully, all of Saturday/Sundays showers and storms appear to be rather progressive and as a result flooding due to heavy rain appears unlikely. Monday and Beyond: Monday through the rest of the work week will see the wester half of the jet stream slacken while a southwesterly jet streak persists, pointed from Kansas/Missouri northeastward into the Great Lakes region. We`ll see temperatures go from a cooler Monday in the upper 70s to low 80s into a warming trend with upper 80s expected by mid- to-late week. With nothing strong frontally to scour out the area, we`ll likely see daily popcorn/pulse rain and storms chances somewhere in the area, though one location may not see rain due to the smaller nature of them. Regardless, we`ll be able to hit our stride locally and enjoy a stretch of summer that isn`t too hot, and isn`t washed out so make the most of it! && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1037 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Light northwesterly to westerly winds will continue through the night. Winds will shift counterclockwise to southerly Saturday afternoon before a round of showers and thunderstorms moves through the terminals. The storms are expected to impact KOFK from 19-21Z, KOMA 23-03Z, and KLNK 23-02Z. These time frames will likely be adjusted with future TAF issuances. The passing of storms will also bring southerly-southeasterly wind gusts of 12-15 kts. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...Wood