Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
308 FNUS86 KMTR 122149 FWLMTR ECCDA Discussions National Weather Service SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 249 PM PDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ##################################################################### ## ## ## Discussions from the latest FWF below ## ## ## ##################################################################### ...Discussion from SFOFWFMTR... Taking advantage of a weaker ridge, a mid-level low off the coast will pump moisture up from the south this weekend. This elevated moisture will lead to precipitable water values exceeding 1", which is the 90th percentile for this time of year. Combined with steep lapse rates, we expect this moisture to produce some elevated convection, however, there is only a 5-10% chance of thunderstorm development. Despite the low probability, there could be high impacts as any lightning that does develop won`t have much rain reach the surface, and we are come off a prolonged heat wave which dried fuels to record levels.| ...Discussion from SFOFWFEKA... High pressure will hold through tomorrow, bringing a return of interior highs around 110 and minimum RH down to 10 percent. Winds will remain mostly gentle and terrain driven. Locally stronger west and southwest wind gusting up to 30 mph are expected during the afternoon today and tomorrow, especially in zones 283 and 277. Brief critical conditions are possible with single digit RH`s and gusty winds. There is a slight chance of dry thunderstorms tomorrow evening in the Trinity horn and the Yolla Bollys, in eastern Lake, Mendocino, and Trinity counties Sunday morning, and northern Trinity Sunday afternoon. ##################################################################### ## ## ## Complete a discussion for each ECCDA segment below ## ## When done click transmit, product sent as KMTRFWLMTR ## ## ## ##################################################################### ECC010-131000- St Helena ECC Dispatch- DISCUSSION FOR Marin and Sonoma and Napa Counties 249 PM PDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Taking advantage of a weaker ridge, a mid-level low off the coast will pump moisture up from the south this weekend. This elevated moisture will lead to precipitable water values exceeding 1", which is the 90th percentile for this time of year. Combined with steep lapse rates, we expect this moisture to produce some elevated convection, however, there is only a 5-10% chance of thunderstorm development. Despite the low probability, there could be high impacts as any lightning that does develop won`t have much rain reach the surface, and we are come off a prolonged heat wave which dried fuels to record levels.| $$ ECC014-131000- Morgan Hill ECC Dispatch- DISCUSSION FOR Alameda and Contra Costa and Santa Clara Counties 249 PM PDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Taking advantage of a weaker ridge, a mid-level low off the coast will pump moisture up from the south this weekend. This elevated moisture will lead to precipitable water values exceeding 1", which is the 90th percentile for this time of year. Combined with steep lapse rates, we expect this moisture to produce some elevated convection, however, there is only a 5-10% chance of thunderstorm development. Despite the low probability, there could be high impacts as any lightning that does develop won`t have much rain reach the surface, and we are come off a prolonged heat wave which dried fuels to record levels.| $$ ECC013-131000- Felton ECC Dispatch- DISCUSSION FOR Santa Cruz and San Mateo Counties 249 PM PDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Taking advantage of a weaker ridge, a mid-level low off the coast will pump moisture up from the south this weekend. This elevated moisture will lead to precipitable water values exceeding 1", which is the 90th percentile for this time of year. Combined with steep lapse rates, we expect this moisture to produce some elevated convection, however, there is only a 5-10% chance of thunderstorm development. Despite the low probability, there could be high impacts as any lightning that does develop won`t have much rain reach the surface, and we are come off a prolonged heat wave which dried fuels to record levels.| $$ ECC018-131000- Monterey ECC Dispatch- DISCUSSION FOR Monterey and San Benito County 249 PM PDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Taking advantage of a weaker ridge, a mid-level low off the coast will pump moisture up from the south this weekend. This elevated moisture will lead to precipitable water values exceeding 1", which is the 90th percentile for this time of year. Combined with steep lapse rates, we expect this moisture to produce some elevated convection, however, there is only a 5-10% chance of thunderstorm development. Despite the low probability, there could be high impacts as any lightning that does develop won`t have much rain reach the surface, and we are come off a prolonged heat wave which dried fuels to record levels.| $$