764
FXUS66 KMTR 082331
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
431 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 111 AM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Day 7 of the inland heat wave. There will be a decent cooling
trend through Tuesday before temperatures increase again Wednesday
through Friday. More substantial cooling is on the way this
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1222 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Satellite imagery shows stratus confined mostly to the immediate
coastal regions of the Bay Area and Central Coast, with patches
hanging on near Berkeley and over the Napa County Airport. Expect
these patches to degrade through the day while the coastal regions
remain socked in through the evening, with stratus building back in
overnight.

It is another day of heat for the interior regions, with Excessive
Heat Warnings continuing in the Santa Lucias and the interior
Central Coast mountains, and Heat Advisories continuing away from
the coast across the rest of the region. High temperatures reach the
90s across the inland valleys, near the low 100s for the warmest
spots across the Bay Area while southern Monterey County sweats it
out with temperatures into the low 110s in areas close to the SLO
County border. Elsewhere, highs range from the mid 70s to the low
80s along the Bayshore and the low to mid 60s along the coast.
Tomorrow morning sees lows range from the mid 50s to lower 60s in
the lower elevations, rising into the low to mid 70s in the thermal
belts, while Tuesday`s highs get a few degrees cooler in the
interior, ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s in most of the
interior valleys to the upper 90s in the warmest spots of the Bay
Area and the mid to upper 100s across southern Monterey County. The
coast and Bayshore regions are expected to remain at around the same
temperatures tomorrow.

Moderate HeatRisk is expected across the inland valleys today,
translating into a continued risk of heat-related illness for
sensitive populations, including children, the elderly, people with
certain medical conditions, people who live in buildings without air
conditioning, or people who work or live outdoors with no adequate
shelter from the heat. The cumulative effects of last week`s heat
will compound the danger for heat-related illness. Remember these
heat safety tips:

* Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids.
* Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing.
* Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade.
* Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles.
* Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1222 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Marked warming begins on Wednesday as the upper level ridge
strengthens over the western United States. The current forecast
calls for high temperatures to peak on Thursday with the inland
valleys seeing highs from the upper 90s to the upper 100s and some
low 110s across the warmest spots, to the upper 80s to the mid 90s
in the Bayshore, and the mid to upper 60s closer to the Pacific
coast. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories continue into
Friday. The subsequent shifts may need to convert some of the Heat
Advisories back into Excessive Heat Warnings for the latter part of
the week, particularly if confidence in very hot temperatures and a
major risk of heat-related illness increases.

One word of caution for the forecast highs: There is still some
uncertainty along the coastal regions, because how warm they will
get will depend on how strong onshore flow gets and how deep the
marine layer goes across the region. Stronger onshore flow and a
more robust marine layer will tend to reduce temperatures across the
coastal regions. In addition, these local phenomena are quite
difficult to predict this far in advance. We saw this last week with
onshore flow contributing to temperatures lower than forecast in the
Santa Cruz area. If onshore flow and the marine layer are stronger
than currently anticipated, temperatures could decrease by around 5
degrees or more across the coastal regions.

Temperatures cool back down into the merely quite warm for the
upcoming weekend, with the current forecast calling for highs in the
upper 80s to mid 90s inland. Beyond that the picture remains
somewhat murky. Both the American and European ensemble models
support next week being cooler than this week. However, the American
ensembles continue to show a cooling trend through next week, but
the European ensemble model remains insistent on temperatures
stabilizing after this weekend`s cooldown.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 431 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024

IFR and LIFR CIGS are along the immediate coast and look to fill
over the Monterey Bay terminals into the evening. Moderate to breezy
winds reduce into evening, becoming light for most areas. Later into
the night, CIGs fill across much of the region with pockets of fog
possible in the North Bay and Monterey Bay terminals. CIGs erode
into mid to late Tuesday morning as moderate winds build. CIGs are
expected to push inland earlier into the evening for Tuesday.


Vicinity of SFO...VFR lasts into the late night. Breezy to gusty
winds become more moderate into the night as MVFR/IFR CIGs fill over
the SF Bay. VFR returns late Tuesday morning with breezy winds
building that afternoon. Winds reduce into Tuesday evening as
MVFR CIGs begin to fill over the terminal.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR CIGs and mist move inland into the
evening as winds reduce. Expect pockets of fog to form into early
Tuesday morning. CIGs erode late Tuesday morning as westerly winds
build.



&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 431 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Northwest winds persisting through the week. Widespread fresh to
strong northwest winds return across the coastal waters by
Wednesday and continue through Friday. Significant wave heights
will build to 10-14 feet across the outer waters beginning
Wednesday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ502>504-506-510-
     512>516-528.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ508.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ517-518.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Canepa

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