Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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922 FXUS66 KMTR 042109 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 209 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1217 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Day 3 of the heat wave. Extremely hot conditions will continue through the middle of next week for inland areas. Excessive Heat Warnings, Heat Advisories, and Red Flag Warnings are in effect. && .UPDATE... Issued at 924 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 The forecast remains on track this morning. The Excessive Heat Warning across our interior remains in effect until Wednesday of next week, highlighting the extent of this heat wave. Today will actually be a few degrees cooler in some locations than yesterday, but temperatures bump right back up tomorrow. The warm overnight lows and modest increase of temperatures again tomorrow will compound the effects of the building heat on sensitive populations. Please limit outdoor activity from late morning through early evening, stay hydrated and check on friends, family and neighbors including pets. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for some of our higher elevation area in coastal ranges and interior peaks and hills. Any fire that gets ignited over our grassland areas will likely spread rapidly. Fireworks should not be used. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 207 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 The center of the dome of high pressure responsible for our extended heat wave has begun moving onshore and will continue to gradually shift east and south over the coming days. Today will be the `coolest` day until possibly the middle of next week, but will offer no relief as the high heat keeps on building, and the impacts will only continue to compound. Elevated locations away from the immediate shoreline are seeing little to no relief wrt overnight temperatures with lows in the 80s, even some higher spots in the 90s. This is something campers and hikers need to be aware of as we continue through the holiday weekend. Temperatures at or just along the immediate shoreline will offer the best chance at beating the heat with highs in the 60s and 70s, otherwise do everything you can to reduce your heat risk. Read below at the bottom of the Long Term forecast for more on how to keep yourself safe. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 207 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Saturday appears to be the peak of the heat wave wrt maximum temperatures, but will still be days away from marking the end of the event. Elevated areas across southern Monterey and San Benito Counties will be at or slightly above 115 degrees. There is no end in sight to heat wave in the official extended forest out to next Thursday (July 11th), but looking out at next weekend, troughing is established along the West Coast on the back side of the meandering high as it moves farther inland. As heights and thickness values gradually decrease, so will temperatures, but until then please take note of the following information to keep yourself, family, friends and pets safe from this historic heat wave. Heat is the number 1 weather related killer in the United States. Unfortunately lives will be lost during this heat wave. Follow these tips to protect yourself, your loved ones, and your animals. -Stay inside in an air conditioned environment between 10am and 7pm. -Suspend unnecessary outdoor activities during the extreme heat, but if you must be outdoors, take frequent breaks in the shade or AC and drink cool water. -Know the signs and symptoms of Heat Exhaustion vs. Heat Stroke! Heat Stroke can be deadly if not treated immediately by a medical professional. Call 911 if you suspect someone is suffering from Heat Stroke. -Wear a lifejacket, swim near a lifeguard, and check conditions before entering the water if going to a river or ocean to cool off. Rivers and the ocean are extremely cold, and Cold Water Shock can turn into paralysis and drowning if you are not careful. -Use a cool and damp towel on your body if you do not have AC and are feeling hot. Or, take a cool shower or bath. -Do not leave kids or pets in a parked car. -Ensure pets and livestock have access to shade and water. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Clear skies over our area with some stratus off the coast. The high pressure has caused some drying of stratus, but some low clouds return along the coast that will travel close to the Monterey Bay terminals overnight. Confidence is high that the remainder of the terminals will remain clear. Therefore, VFR through the TAF period for all terminals, except KSNS. Winds will build this afternoon, but will turn light to variable overnight. Vicinity of SFO...High confidence that VFR will prevail through the TAF period. NW/W winds will become breezy this afternoon up to 12 knots before becoming light to moderate overnight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period for KMRY, whereas the model signal and persistence forecast shows KSNS receiving a LIFR ceiling. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1026 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Light to moderate winds persist into the weekend. Waves start to diminish this morning, bringing relatively calm conditions over the waters into Friday before winds begin to become gusty in the southern waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 257 PM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Red Flag Warnings are in effect for the North Bay Interior Mountains, East Bay Hills, and Santa Cruz Mountains until 9 PM Saturday. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for the Marin and Sonoma Coastal Range until 5 AM Friday. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for the Santa Lucia Mountains, San Benito County, and the Southern Salinas Valley from 9 AM Friday through 9 PM Saturday. This heat wave will bring very low RH and the long duration will cure and dry the fuels. ERC values are exceeding or approaching the max moving average for a number of regions. Thankfully the winds won`t be very strong, but with such high temps, low RH and critically dry fuels, it only takes 6-11 mph winds to trigger RFW criteria. Conditions are dangerous, and we urge extreme caution. Please rethink the use of any fireworks this year, including the safe and sane, or even those seemingly-innocuous sparklers and pop-its. Perhaps consider not lighting them off at all this year, and instead enjoy a professional display in your community, or even on TV. Its not worth the risk. Don`t Be the Spark! && .BEACHES... Issued at 1224 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Beaches will be a popular destination over the Holiday and as one of the few places to escape the oppressive inland temperatures. Fortunately the waves are relatively low energy, but that doesn`t alleviate all beach safety concerns. Ocean temperatures are in the mid-50s. This cold water may catch some off-guard. Cold water shock can set in very quickly. Wear a life jacket, dress appropriately, limit time in the water, swim near a lifeguard and follow their instructions. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for CAZ006-506-508. Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006. Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ502>504- 506-510-512>518. Red Flag Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for CAZ502-503. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ504-512-515. Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ508-528-529. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM Friday to 9 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ516>518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...SO MARINE...SO Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea