278
FXUS66 KMTR 142101
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
201 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Upper level trough will remain situated along the coast this week,
with temperatures remaining near to slightly below normal through
much of the week, with little day to day fluctuations possible.
Meanwhile, a deep marine layer will linger along the coast this
week, pushing inland each night and receding to the coast during
the day. A minor warming trend may develop late in the work week
and for next weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Water vapor imagery continues to show this week disturbance
lifting north and east this afternoon, with the Central Coast now
in the dry sector. As a result, sunny skies are prevailing across
the majority of the region. However, visible imagery shows the marine
layer remains firmly entrenched along the immediate coast. In
fact, Monterey Airport is still trying to clear at this hour, and
while it may briefly, expect the low clouds to roll back in
quickly late this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, temperatures
this afternoon are running within 2 degrees of where they were at
this time yesterday, with most coastal locations still in the 60s
and inland locations in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Only the hot
spots are in the 90s at this time. Given the marine push expected
this evening, expect it to be very pleasant if you are out and
about. The low clouds and fog will once again push inland this
evening and during the overnight hours. Expect tomorrow to be a
repeat of today, with day temperatures once again within a degree
or two of what we saw today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Upper level trough of low pressure will remain along the West
Coast this week, with a series of disturbances moving around the
periphery of this trough. This upper level trough will be the
main driving factor of our weather, keeping near to below normal
conditions prevailing across the region. The little disturbances
though will cause subtle day to day fluctuations. Therefore,
expect a relatively deep marine layer to linger along the coast
for most of the work week, pushing inland each night. As these
disturbances lift along the trough, there will be periods of high
clouds as well. At this time, the instability is even less
impressive than what we were looking at for this current event.
Therefore, think any shower and thunderstorm activity will remain
well to our east, but it does bears watching for Wednesday and
again on Friday. Models are hinting at a bit of a warm up for
Friday and Saturday, but it is short lived. This warm up may also
be in question as the ensembles are trending towards more status
quo, rather than a significant warm up. Will need to watch it as
well. Otherwise, enjoy the week. Palmer

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1024 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Stratus continues to cover much of the area terminals this morning,
but is expected to clear towards noon to lead to widespread VFR
conditions. Breezy NW winds will return in the afternoon today for
most terminals. Stratus will make an early return in the evening,
bringing MVFR/IFR conditions, and winds will ease to become light.
Confidence on CIGS lowering to LIFR conditions in the overnight
hours tonight is currently very low given troughing and the
associated lifting influence. Highest confidence is in CIGs
maintaining at IFR altitudes through the night. Stratus then
clears in the late morning of Monday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the early evening today, though
stratus will begin to filter in towards the 00Z hour bringing a few
low clouds over the terminal. Winds onshore and moderate in the
afternoon, later easing to become light in the night. MVFR CIGs
develop towards the late night and then last through the morning of
Monday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Stratus and low clouds will fill into the Bay
overnight with predominantly MVFR CIGs.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus expected to clear towards noon
today to usher in VFR conditions. However, VFR will be short lived,
as coastal clouds are expected to make a return in the early evening
today. IFR CIGs last through the night, and may lower, though
confidence on becoming LIFR is very low. Clearing on Monday late in
the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 801 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Radar shows isolated showers over the waters this morning. Slight
chances of light rain and drizzle will persist through the
weekend over the waters, but diminish afterwards. Gentle to
moderate winds persist today and begin to take on a more southerly
pattern that lasts through the middle part of next week, but then
turns to become more northwesterly beyond then.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Palmer
LONG TERM....Palmer
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC

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