429
FXUS66 KMTR 151019
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
319 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Quiet weather with temperatures at or slightly below normal through
midweek, with only slightly warmer temperatures for the end of the
work week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Slow moving upper level disturbance offshore of NorCal continues to
gradually lift north while eventually getting absorbed by persistent
troughing working on the northwest periphery of broad ridge over
western CONUS. A steady fetch of onshore flow will help expand the
marine layer with a push inland and advect cool ocean modified air
across our area. The net result is temperatures at or even slightly
below seasonal averages for this time of year today and tomorrow.
Expect morning fog/stratus over inland valley areas each day to lift
by early afternoon, while lingering most of the day along the
coastal shoreline, with occasional breaks allowing for some sunshine
to work through. Overall quiet weather with pleasant seasonal
temperatures to begin the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Shortwave ridging and H50 thickness increases on Wednesday will
result in a barely noticeable uptick in temperatures as the upper
level trough over the northern Pacific deepens and becomes more
organized, but struggles to make progress eastward. As the
persistent high pressure over the Four Corners region slowly expands
westward again for the second half of the week, we`ll see a gradual
climb in daytime highs to end the work week into next weekend. The
warm up for the latter part of the extended forecast is not expected
to reach the extreme levels we saw during the heat wave, with the
persistent troughing we`re seeing now remaining in place through
next weekend. Interior locations east of our forecast area will
begin to see another round of extreme heat later this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of the Monterey
Bay terminals of MRY and SNS. Stratus has begun protruding inland
with all terminals expected to deteriorate to IFR-MVFR overnight.
Widespread VFR is expected to prevail by late-morning. Winds will
remain onshore through the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. A low-end MVFR
ceiling will impact the terminal overnight with VFR prevailing by
mid-to-late morning. Winds will prevail out of the west/northwest
through the TAF period with gusts up to 25 knots to be expected
tomorrow afternoon. Another low-end MVFR ceiling is forecast to
impact the terminal again tomorrow night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with westerly flow at MRY and
MVFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. SNS is expected to further
deteriorate to IFR overnight with both terminals expected to be VFR
by late-morning. Winds will prevail out of the west for MRY and out
of the west/northwest for SNS through the TAF period. IFR ceilings
are expected to impact both terminals again by tomorrow evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 828 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Any chances of drizzle over the waters have diminished. Gentle to
moderate winds persist today and begin to take on a more
southerly pattern that lasts through the middle part of next week,
but then turns to become more northwesterly beyond then.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...SO

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