193
FXUS66 KMTR 161028
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
328 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Quiet weather with pleasant seasonal temperatures continues today
with a gradual but steady warm up beginning tomorrow that extends
into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Not much change in the short term forecast, however slower
progression overnight of marine stratus over coastal locations and
nearby interior valleys does add uncertainty to todays forecasted
high temperatures, a trend that will need to be watched by the
day shift. Upper level shortwave ridging tomorrow will result in
warmer temperatures (approx 3-5 degree increase) away from the
marine layer influence under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The gradual but steady increase in temperatures for Thursday and
beyond is the result of a shift and expansion west of the high
pressure system responsible for the recent heat wave, back over
our area for the end of this week into the weekend. Both ensemble
and deterministic extended guidance indicate the warming trend as
the dome of high pressure works back in our direction, with good
consensus that widespread extreme heat is unlikely in our area.
However, the typically warm spots, like elevated inland areas will
once again see triple digit heat by the end of the work week and
beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Currently VFR at all terminals. Stratus remains exclusive to the
Pacific Ocean, but it is beginning to creep towards the coastline.
Moderate-to-high confidence that all terminals will develop an MVFR
ceiling overnight, the uncertainty lies in the exact timing with the
overall trend being after 08Z. Winds will remain onshore through the
TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. Winds will
prevail out of the west through the TAF period. While exact timing
remains uncertain due to the divergence of guidance/models, there is
moderate confidence that an MVFR ceiling will impact the terminal
overnight with a return to VFR slated for late-morning. The terminal
is expected to experience another MVFR ceiling overnight tomorrow.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR and calm at MRY and VFR with
northerly flow at SNS. Winds will prevail out of the west/northwest
through the TAF period. Low-end MVFR to high-end IFR ceilings are
expected to impact the terminals overnight with VFR returning by
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 858 PM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Low pressure to the north is helping to support light southerly
winds tonight. Light southerly winds persist through Tuesday,
though turn to become more northwesterly beginning early
Wednesday. These winds will gradually build rough, short period
seas by Thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...AC

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