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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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113 FXUS66 KMTR 161133 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 433 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 325 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Quiet weather with pleasant seasonal temperatures continues today with a gradual but steady warm up beginning tomorrow that extends into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 325 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Not much change in the short term forecast, however slower progression overnight of marine stratus over coastal locations and nearby interior valleys does add uncertainty to todays forecasted high temperatures, a trend that will need to be watched by the day shift. Upper level shortwave ridging tomorrow will result in warmer temperatures (approx 3-5 degree increase) away from the marine layer influence under mostly sunny skies. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 325 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The gradual but steady increase in temperatures for Thursday and beyond is the result of a shift and expansion west of the high pressure system responsible for the recent heat wave, back over our area for the end of this week into the weekend. Both ensemble and deterministic extended guidance indicate the warming trend as the dome of high pressure works back in our direction, with good consensus that widespread extreme heat is unlikely in our area. However, the typically warm spots, like elevated inland areas will once again see triple digit heat by the end of the work week and beyond. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 427 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Currently seeing a mixed bag of VFR-MVFR at the terminals as stratus is very slowly starting to move and expand inland. There still remains moderate-to-high confidence that all terminals will develop MVFR ceilings this morning. Widespread VFR is expected to prevail by early this afternoon. Winds will remain onshore through the TAF period. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Stratus will begin impacting the terminal shortly as it is starting to expand north from the San Mateo Bridge Approach and east through the San Bruno Gap. The terminal is expected to improve to VFR by late- morning with another MVFR ceiling slated to impact the terminal overnight. Winds will prevail out of the west through the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach...Low clouds are already impacting the San Mateo Bridge Approach with clearing expected to be similar to the terminal between 17Z and 18Z. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and VFR and calm at SNS. Winds will prevail out of the west/northwest through the TAF period. Low-end MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to impact the terminals this morning with VFR prevailing by this afternoon. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 427 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Light southerly breezes will transition to gentle northwesterly breezes by this afternoon. The pressure gradient will begin tightening tomorrow, allowing for northwesterly breezes to strengthen and widespread strong gusts to be expected across the waters. Significant wave heights will continue to slowly build through the week with 10-12 feet to be expected in the outer waters Thursday through the end of the forecast period. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea