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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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927 FXUS66 KMTR 171112 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 412 AM PDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 351 AM PDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Today begins a warming trend into the weekend, with a short pause on Saturday. There is potential for more intense, impactful heat for at least the first half of next week, especially for inland locations away from the marine layer influence. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 351 AM PDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Shortwave ridging in the wake of an upper level low currently moving onshore across central Oregon will mark the beginning of a well advertised warm up from the seasonally pleasant temperatures we`ve seen the past few days. Highs today will increase, about five degrees from yesterday, for most locations beyond the reach of marine layer influence. Coastal locations won`t be left behind entirely, with most spots close to the shoreline seeing a least a couple ticks warmer today too. Temperatures take another step up tomorrow as we begin to see the influence of the upper level ridge over the Four Corners region begin to retrograde and expand back to the west in our direction through the remainder of the forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 351 AM PDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Confidence is high that a warming trend will continue through the extended forecast, with a brief but subtle pause on Saturday due to a compact upper level disturbance passing over the Central Coast providing cooler midlevel temperatures. By Sunday, the ridge of high pressure amplifies significantly allowing for persistent troughing to continue offshore to our north through at least Tuesday helping to mitigate the chances for more extreme heat. Deterministic guidance indicates decent consensus for the high to eventually expand far enough west to deflect the polar jet farther north by late Tuesday. Expect the warmest temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, when the high begins to position over Nevada and central California. Some of our elevated inland locations may see high temperatures similar to what was realized during the recent heat wave, but overall the magnitude of the heat and duration is not expected to match what we saw the first half of July. Both the ECMWF and GFS indicate a more active overall synoptic longwave pattern capable of breaking the ridge down across our region by the end of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 408 AM PDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Currently IFR-MVFR at all terminals with the exception of STS, although the terminal is expected to develop a low-end MVFR ceiling shortly. Ceilings are generally hovering in the low-end MVFR to high-end IFR range and will likely transition between the two through the late morning when VFR is expected to prevail. Winds will remain onshore through the TAF period. Vicinity of SFO...Currently IFR with westerly flow. The ceiling will likely hover in the high-end IFR to low-end MVFR range until clearing is expected at 16Z. Winds will prevail out of the west through the TAF period with gusts up to 25 knots to be expected this afternoon and evening. Another low-end MVFR ceiling is forecast to impact the terminal overnight. SFO Bridge Approach...Low clouds are expected to clear between 18Z and 19Z. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with westerly flow at MRY and MVFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Ceilings will likely fluctuate between IFR and low-end MVFR until VFR is expected in the late- morning. Winds will prevail out of the west/northwest through the TAF period. Low-end MVFR ceilings are forecast to impact both terminals again overnight. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 408 AM PDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Winds this evening have begun to become more W/NW and will continue to be northwesterly through the remainder of the week. Although winds are currently gentle across much of the waters, they will strengthen throughout the day Wednesday to become fresh to strong by the late evening. Significant wave heights will build to rough by Wednesday and conditions will continue to deteriorate through the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea