165
FXUS65 KMSO 112002
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
202 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.DISCUSSION...A subtle disturbance has moved through the region
causing the strong ridge of high pressure to be flatten into
westerly flow aloft. This flow pattern will be over the Northern
Rockies through the remainder of the work week into the weekend.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler, but still remain around 10
degrees above average for this time of year. This flow pattern is
also conducive to allowing gusty westerly winds to develop during
the afternoon and evening hours. The strongest winds appear to
occur on Saturday with gusts up to 30 mph across Lemhi county and
southwest Montana. The combination of low afternoon humidity and
gusty west winds will push southwest Montana into critical fire
weather conditions on Saturday afternoon and evening, so a fire
weather watch has been issued. Some monsoonal moisture will be
making its way northward Friday into the weekend. This moisture
could cause a few high-based thunderstorms to develop with Sunday
afternoon having the best potential (10-30%) for convection across
Lemhi county into southwest Montana.

All the model clusters are indicating that the ridge of high
pressure will rebuild over the western United States during the
first part of next week. This ridge will keep hot and dry
conditions with lighter winds.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. All
terminals are expected to experience westerly winds with gusts up
to 20 knots this afternoon until 12/03z. KBTM and to a lesser
extent KSMN will have some high-based cumulus clouds develop on
the higher terrain around the terminals until 12/04z.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Deerlodge/West Beaverhead...East Beaverhead.

ID...None.
&&

$$