586
FXUS64 KMRX 120038
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
838 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

No changes were made to the forecast for tonight during the
evening update. Dry conditions will continue with lows mainly in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry conditions and near normal temperatures will continue to
persist through Monday.

Discussion:

A slight chance POP is in place this afternoon across Clay County
NC. Otherwise, expect dry conditions and near normal temperatures
through the period. The synoptic pattern will remain mostly
unchanged, with upper level troughing in place to our northeast and
high pressure back to our west. This will keep our area in a weak
northwest flow pattern through the period. Dewpoints will be in the
upper 50s to low 60s for tomorrow, allowing for another nice day
across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Key Messages:

1. Near normal temperatures continue.

2. Mostly dry conditions through mid-week before increasing rain
chances late week into the weekend.

Discussion:

We will start the long term period with a ridge axis over central
portions of the CONUS and troughing in the northern corners. Near
normal temperatures will persist into the mid-week, along with very
minimal chances(30% or less) for a shower or storm owing to strong
influence of high pressure across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley
region. Any afternoon activity Tuesday and Wednesday will generally
be more confined to higher elevation locations.

A more defined shortwave trough moves through the mean flow aloft
late week and into the weekend. This upper level feature will
promote weak cyclogenesis in portions of the mid-west. The
developing surface low will track through the Great Lakes region and
decrease the influence of high pressure over the Tennessee Valley.
Associated frontal passages will promote increased coverage of
showers and storms, with Friday and Saturday currently looking like
the favored time for greatest coverage. Ensemble guidance suggest
the probability of CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg is around the 40-50%
range. Soundings place Effective Shear at 20kts or less. Will of
course monitor for severe potential throughout the coming days but
at the moment threats look very marginal this far out.

Lingering activity is possible through the end of the weekend, but
will be contingent on how far southeast the frontal boundary reaches
be for stalling out. Temperatures should remain near seasonal normal
through this time as well, although, some fluctuation is possible
depending on the exact coverage of showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

High clouds near CHA will thin out some tonight. VFR conditions
will prevail this TAF cycle with light northerly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             66  90  68  93 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  63  87  66  88 /   0   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       63  86  65  88 /   0   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              58  84  62  84 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...McD