Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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987 FXUS64 KMRX 120511 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 111 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 831 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 No changes were made to the forecast for tonight during the evening update. Dry conditions will continue with lows mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Key Messages: 1. Dry conditions and near normal temperatures will continue to persist through Monday. Discussion: A slight chance POP is in place this afternoon across Clay County NC. Otherwise, expect dry conditions and near normal temperatures through the period. The synoptic pattern will remain mostly unchanged, with upper level troughing in place to our northeast and high pressure back to our west. This will keep our area in a weak northwest flow pattern through the period. Dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to low 60s for tomorrow, allowing for another nice day across the area. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Key Messages: 1. Near normal temperatures continue. 2. Mostly dry conditions through mid-week before increasing rain chances late week into the weekend. Discussion: We will start the long term period with a ridge axis over central portions of the CONUS and troughing in the northern corners. Near normal temperatures will persist into the mid-week, along with very minimal chances(30% or less) for a shower or storm owing to strong influence of high pressure across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley region. Any afternoon activity Tuesday and Wednesday will generally be more confined to higher elevation locations. A more defined shortwave trough moves through the mean flow aloft late week and into the weekend. This upper level feature will promote weak cyclogenesis in portions of the mid-west. The developing surface low will track through the Great Lakes region and decrease the influence of high pressure over the Tennessee Valley. Associated frontal passages will promote increased coverage of showers and storms, with Friday and Saturday currently looking like the favored time for greatest coverage. Ensemble guidance suggest the probability of CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg is around the 40-50% range. Soundings place Effective Shear at 20kts or less. Will of course monitor for severe potential throughout the coming days but at the moment threats look very marginal this far out. Lingering activity is possible through the end of the weekend, but will be contingent on how far southeast the frontal boundary reaches be for stalling out. Temperatures should remain near seasonal normal through this time as well, although, some fluctuation is possible depending on the exact coverage of showers and storms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites. Winds will generally be light. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 68 93 70 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 66 88 66 / 0 0 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 86 65 88 66 / 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 62 84 61 / 0 10 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM....KRS AVIATION...