Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
740 FXUS64 KMRX 052323 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 723 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat Jul5 2025 Key Messages: 1. Rain chances increase through the first half of next week, with high rain chances continuing through the rest of the week. 2. Increasing humidity with heat index values approaching 100 in the southern Valley for much of next week. Discussion: The ridge over the area today will weaken and drift southward into the Gulf over the next few days as a broad trough develops over the Great Lakes and OH Valley region. Chantal will stay well east of our area and have no direct impacts. Sunday will be mainly a dry day again for most spots, although some isolated showers and storms may develop in the higher terrain in the afternoon. A midlevel ridge axis will still extend over the Appalachians, and limit convective potential. Monday looks similar, but with dewpoints possibly pushing into the upper 60s to lower 70s during the afternoon, the slight chance PoP spreads into the Valley. The weakening ridge and approaching through to our west will continue the trend of increasing moisture and instability on Tuesday, with PW values rising over 1.5 inches and MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg. A front pushes into the OH Valley and will allow for a greater chance of afternoon showers and storms by Wednesday. The front will likely remain stationary to our north as it parallels the midlevel flow. The upper trough amplifies slightly by Thursday, helping to draw more moisture from the Gulf in the latter half of the week. So we could be looking at a rather wet period for Thursday through Saturday with PW values above climatological norms. && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 657 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites. Winds will generally be light. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 95 72 96 / 0 10 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 93 72 94 / 0 10 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 69 94 71 93 / 0 10 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 90 68 91 / 0 10 10 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DGS LONG TERM....DGS AVIATION...