385
FXUS64 KMRX 071113
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
713 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Key Messages:

1. Chance of showers and storms this afternoon and early evening
near the East Tennessee Mountains and SW NC.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a trough is deepening over the Great Plains
and a weak ridge is over the Northeast. At the surface, high
pressure is centered over the Ohio Valley drifting into the
Northeast tonight. A stationary boundary is parked just east of
the region over Central North and South Carolina. This afternoon
and early evening, showers and storms are likely near the East
Tennessee Mountains and North Carolina counties. Chances are lower
in SW Virginia and NE Tennessee. Elsewhere, mostly sunny and dry
conditions are expected. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s.
Tonight, patchy fog will be possible but there may be just enough
cloud cover keep it clear in most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Key Messages:

1. Heat indices of 100-105 degrees returns Monday and Tuesday as low-
level moisture seeps back into the region.

2. Convectively active each day. Highest rain chances will remain
across the mountains and southern Tennessee Valley.

3. Remnants of Beryl will remain well west of our forecast area.

Discussion:

Monday morning the area is on the western fringes of high pressure
off the Atlantic coast of NC/SC. The projection of Beryl`s path will
be dictated by the steering flow of the aforementioned high and
trough over the northern Plains. While the majority of tropical
rainfall will be confined farther west, our area will be very moist
helping to provide some mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
While not everyone will experience the beneficial rains, those who
do could get locally heavy amounts through Wednesday. Despite higher
rain chances in the forecast, rainfall amounts through Thursday only
range from about a tenth to a half inch.

Due to the higher low level moisture levels, heat index values will
also make it feel fairly miserable with apparent temperatures
warming into the 100-105 degree range. There could be some heat
advisories issued in future forecasts due to the combination of hot
temperatures and high humidity levels.

Beryl is forecast to track into the Great Lakes region by Wednesday
night. Rain chances for our area come down a little through the
remainder of the week. Temperatures on the other hand will slightly
cool Thursday (into the 80s and 90s) but quickly return to the mid
90s. Heat index values will rise once again to near 100 degrees by
the end of the week into the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail this TAF cycle. High clouds will
thin by early afternoon. Light winds will be northeasterly.
Showers and storms will likely remain east of the terminals this
afternoon but there is a low chance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             96  75  96  75 /  20  20  50  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  93  73  95  74 /  20  10  50  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       93  72  94  73 /  10  10  40  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              92  70  92  70 /  30  10  50  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM....AC
AVIATION...McD