Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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948 FXUS64 KMRX 120002 AAA AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 802 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Key Messages: 1. Dry weather expected to continue. Friday is several degrees warmer, kicking off a several day heat wave across the area. Precautions should be taken to keep cool and hydrated. Discussion: Today is the last great day of regular summer weather before nature decides to increase the heat once more. Visible satellite this afternoon depicts a puffy cumulus field forming along our many topography features, and temperatures have maintained their match to forecast with seasonable weather and low relative humidity. Tonight temperatures will be slightly warmer than last night into this morning, as we continue our warming trend. Fog this morning had been fairly limited to Virginian and Kentucky valleys, and that might be the most expected tomorrow morning. Upper ridge begins to push back north, kicking the upper trough away, yielding higher temperatures tomorrow. Afternoon high temperatures south of Interstate 40 will be in the mid to upper 90s, kicking off the first day of a major heatwave. While we have had a hot summer so far, it is imperative to note that precautions from the heat are necessary to keep cool. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Key Messages: 1. Warming temperatures this weekend but afternoon humidity will fall into the 30-40% range Sat-Tues. Temperatures early next week to approach record highs. 2. Low afternoon chance of showers or thunderstorms in the mountains. Dry weather likely to persist for most. 3. Wednesday and Thursday rain chances areawide. Discussion: Not too many ways to tell the same story about the upper highs over the southern Rockies and the west Atlantic. This upper level pattern will keep things fairly uneventful through Tuesday, with mainly isolated higher elevation afternoon convection expected each day. The main weather feature will be the heat, with temperatures nearing record highs and heat indices exceeding 100 degrees in the central and southern Valley areas, especially with Monday through Wednesday likely being the hottest. A weather system will then try to move into the area midweek, with a frontal boundary trying to slowly move through, acting as a precip focal point. So rain chances will increase Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. In fact, QPF at the moment calls for roughly 0.5 to 1.0 inches total from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon, a little more in the mountains. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 759 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 VFR conditions will persist throughout the 00z TAF period. We`ll have mostly clear skies tonight, but should see another CU field develop tomorrow mid to late morning with bases between FEW050-070. Mixing is not quite as deep tomorrow as it was today so don`t expect to see gusts again tomorrow afternoon at KCHA. Otherwise, for simplicity`s sake, went with one line TAFs at all sites with light NNE winds and that CU field mentioned above. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 71 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 69 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 90 69 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 64 92 67 / 0 0 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wellington LONG TERM....GC AVIATION...CD