Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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216 FXUS64 KMRX 161718 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 118 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1109 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Low-level deformation zone across the region has resulted in a few areas of showers and thunderstorms developing along this axis. This scattered activity will continue into the afternoon, and we may also begin to see some additional isolated diurnal convection across the higher terrain. In areas that are receiving rainfall mid-day, this will likely result in slightly cooler afternoon max temperatures, but with added humidity, heat index values will still be into the 90s and lower 100s. JB && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 323 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Key Messages: 1. Isolated to weakly scattered showers and storms this afternoon. 2. Continued hot temperatures with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Discussion: Currently, an upper disturbance is owing to increased troughing across portions of the mid-west, with on going convection across Indiana and Illinois well ahead of a surface boundary. We will remain displaced enough from primary forcing that just the typical diurnally driven isolated to scattered convection is expected this afternoon. HREF ensemble members generally depict around 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE for the afternoon hours among almost no shear. Latest RAP soundings suggest DCAPE will reach around 1000-1200 J/kg during peak mixing hours. Given the above, a few stronger storms with locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out but the overall threat for any severe storms is quite minimal at this time. We continue to expect another afternoon with unseasonably hot temperatures, with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s across much of the area. There is a tad bit of uncertainty with this however, as a handful of models such as the HRRR, GFS, and RAP suggest we mix out quite well and dewpoints may even struggle to reach 70 degrees(The current forecast weighted with NBM10th percentile has Td generally in the low 70s). It is possible that a few isolated areas approach 105 degree Heat Index like the past few days but don`t believe it is widespread enough to justify a heat advisory at this time, especially given the aforementioned uncertainty. We see a lull in activity during the late evening/early overnight hours before a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest brings increased forcing and a return of some showers and storms early Wednesday morning. However, the bulk of the activity will occur throughout Wednesday and more information on this can be found in the long term discussion below. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 323 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Key Messages: 1. A frontal passage will bring widespread showers and storms across the area Wednesday into Thursday. 2. A break from the heat is expected behind the frontal passage, with slightly below normal temperatures from Thursday through Tuesday. Discussion: Wednesday, a deep upper level trough and associated cold front approach from the northwest. A few showers and storms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning ahead of the front. Then, coverage increases around mid day as surface heating increases and forcing becomes stronger as the front draws closer. With good moisture and forcing, this will be the best chance of widespread rain we have seen in quite some time. As far as storm potential, not seeing anything too concerning at the moment. However, a few strong storms are possible due to an increase in shear, around 20kts, with the approaching trough. The main threat will be isolated damaging straight line winds. Overall though, severe weather is not expected at this time. The big forecast question is how far south does the frontal boundary push by Thursday. If it is still in the vicinity expect another day of widespread showers and storms. However, if it pushes too far south then the bulk of the precip will be to our south and we will be much drier. NBM POPs suggest the front is still in the vicinity Thursday so will continue with that trend for now. Storm total QPF between Wednesday and Thursday has most locations around 1 inch of rainfall. Beyond Thursday, precip chances remain elevated but with no distinct features moving through the flow. The elevated precip chances are due to higher than normal moisture values across the area due to a strong area of high pressure across Bermuda. This high placement is conducive for Gulf moisture streaming into the southeastern U.S. Precip during this timeframe will be diurnally driven. The other good news is that temperatures will be slightly below normal during this time as well. High temps will generally be in the mid 80s. The coolest day is Friday, with temps in the lower 80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 116 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue in the vicinity of terminals this afternoon. With residual outflow boundaries across the region and increasing boundary layer convergence this evening into the overnight hours, there remains 20 to 30 percent or greater probabilities for convection in the vicinity of terminals overnight. However, outside of convection VFR conditions will prevail with light SW/WSW winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 95 73 89 / 20 80 70 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 93 72 85 / 50 80 80 80 Oak Ridge, TN 74 92 71 84 / 40 80 80 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 91 69 81 / 70 90 80 80 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KRS AVIATION...JB