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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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563 FXUS63 KMQT 121144 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 744 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - ~20% chance of isolated diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms this afternoon. - Hot and muggy conditions this weekend with the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday through Monday. - Cooling and drying trend into the midweek portion of next week with the arrival of high pressure. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... Issued at 452 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Under clear skies and calm winds early this morning, dewpoint depressions have been lowering. As a result, will carry a patchy fog mention across central and eastern portions of Upper Michigan through Fri 12Z. Any fog that does form, however, will quickly burn off by mid-morning. Focus then turns to the high temperatures and potential for diurnal convection later today. Height rises through the day should help to mitigate any widespread convective activity. But, some of the CAMs continue to hint at slight chances (~20%) for isolated showers/thunderstorms this afternoon as SBCAPE values reach the 500-1200 J/kg range with daytime highs topping off in the mid to upper 80s. As a result, could not trend toward a completely dry forecast and inserted mention of 20% chance Pops across much of the interior west and central as well as portions of the east where HRRR is pinpointing some isolated higher SBCAPE values. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 A more active period starts out the extended period as a shortwave moves over the area this weekend before a Clipper low brings more precip to the U.P. early next week; some very warm temperatures are expected Saturday and Sunday, and severe weather could be seen Sunday and Monday. Once we get behind the Clipper low though, expect high pressure ridging to finish out the rest of next week as a developing rex block develops eastwards into the Central U.S. The last of the afternoon convection ends early this evening as the sun sets and we lose the diurnal heating. With upper level ridging moving overhead and sfc level ridging holding on over our area tonight, expect mostly clear skies with low temperatures getting down to around 60 in the interior areas. Moving into Saturday, a shortwave trough looks to move into our area from the west. However, it will still have to fight against localized high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day, which may limit the cloud cover and convection to only a few hours in the afternoon over the east and possibly late in the afternoon over the west. With weak warm air advection occurring throughout the day and southerly winds too, expect very warm conditions Saturday, with highs getting into the 80s across most of the area; some spots could get to or exceed 90, particularly the downslopes near Lake Superior (ex. L`Anse). Moving into the Saturday night, the chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms increases as the shortwave begins moving through the U.P.; while there looks to be enough instability to continue the convection through Saturday night, the available CAMs do show convective activity decreasing during the overnight hours. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through Sunday as a secondary shortwave from the Northern Plains reinvigorates convection across the area. With bulk shear increasing to around 30 knots or more, and with model guidance uniformly showing MUCAPEs of 1000 J/kg or more over the area, some strong to severe thunderstorms could be seen. Looking at model soundings, it appears that the primary threat will be hail, with a secondary threat of severe winds as the convective instability is present above a thick layer of CIN in the lower levels. Another very warm day is in store for us Sunday, with highs pretty similar to Saturday as generally weak southwest surface flow dominates the U.P. A Clipper low brings additional showers and thunderstorms to our area early next week, although there is some model divergence as to when the convection associated with the low arrives; it could arrive as early as late Sunday night or as late as Monday afternoon. Regardless, more severe weather could be seen as bulk shear values increase in comparison to Sunday. However, CAPE values do not look to be as high. Therefore, with the better CAPE being in the interior areas Monday, any severe weather we do see will likely be relegated to this part of the U.P.; the primary threats will be severe hail and winds Monday. Besides maybe some light afternoon showers Tuesday, expect a drier and less active weather pattern for the last half of the extended period as high pressure builds in from the west. Behind the Clipper low, we could see temperatures drop to well below normal; the ECMWF EFI shows max temperatures in the -0.5 to -0.7 range Wednesday, meaning we could see highs only get into the 60s across some portions of the U.P. on that day. However, as we head towards the end of next week, expect the temperatures to gradually return to near normal as the surface ridging continues eastwards and allows warmer air to advect into our area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 743 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 LIFR flight conditions at SAW possible through mid-morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail for the duration of the TAF period. Isolated showers/thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with afternoon heating, but confidence is too low to include mention at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Light winds of 20 knots or less are expected to continue today through this weekend until early next week as zonal flow aloft continues overhead for the next couple of days. That being said, a couple of shortwave lows may bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms over the lake late Saturday through Sunday; some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe on Sunday. A Clipper low looks to bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the lake Monday into Monday night; some strong to severe storms could be seen, especially along the southerly nearshores with this Clipper. Behind the Clipper`s cold front, we could see northwesterly to west winds getting up to 20+ knots Monday night and Tuesday. Some patchy dense fog could be seen in the wake of each round of precipitation over the next several days. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...TAP