Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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026 FXUS63 KMQT 041726 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 126 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance (15-30%) of showers/storms this afternoon roughly from Ironwood eastward to Manistique. - Widespread moderate rain expected late tonight into Friday evening. Some thunder possible. - While not a washout...scattered shower and thunderstorm chances return for Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 944 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 The forecast remains on track this morning, with a pleasant start to the holiday area-wide. Temperatures hover in the 60s so far, but should be able to peak well in the 70s for most. Otherwise, though we`re staying dry so far with just some high cirrus spilling in from a system moving over the Lower Midwest, we continue to anticipate some weak convection across the eastern UP later today along the lake breeze. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show troffing from n central Canada to se Canada. In a separate branch of flow, a shortwave trof is emerging over the western Dakotas. This shortwave trof will affect Upper MI weather tonight/Fri. Closer to home, after the sct shra/tsra of yesterday aftn/evening, it`s been a quiet overnight period. Winds are light to calm, and only some patches of mid- level cloudiness are noted, mainly across the e. Temps have fallen to the low/mid 50s F at the traditional cooler spots interior w, but in general, temps range thru the upper 50s and 60s F. Expect a nice start to Independence Day as weak sfc high pres ridge drifts e to the western Great Lakes. This will lead to an aftn with meso highs over Lake Superior and northern Lake MI. So, lake breezes will rule the aftn, providing some cooling near the Lakes. Expect high temps to range from mostly upper 60s/lwr 70s along the Lakes, depending on how quickly lake breezes develop, to the upper 70s/lwr 80s F inland. Model consensus is for up to a few hundred j/kg of MLCAPE to build this aftn in the interior. Lake breeze convergence zone over the eastern fcst area should be one area that may support some aftn convective development. With light nw gradient flow in the morning giving the Lake Superior lake breeze an earlier start than the Lake MI lake breeze, the convergence zone will set up closer to Lake MI. Expect any isold shra/tsra that might develop to be across Delta/southern Schoolcraft counties. To the w, forcing from the aforementioned wave heading out over the Dakotas may provide some support for isold to sct late day shra/tsra, mainly in the counties bordering WI. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 An active weather period continues through the extended period as the cycle of shortwaves followed by high pressure ridging continues until around the middle to end of next week. More details follow below. Expect some showers and thunderstorms to make there way into the U.P. tonight as a shortwave low over the Northern Plains is phased with a low lifting from the Southern Plains. While the chances for rain look best along the Wisconsin border by the time fireworks start this evening, the rain chances look to continue increasing across the rest of the area late tonight as the low`s center moves through central Wisconsin. While a strong storm or two could be seen near the Wisconsin border this evening due to MUCAPEs possibly being as high as 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear possibly squeaking out as much as 30 knots, no severe weather is generally expected as the CAPE within the atmosphere looks to rapidly deplete as the sun sets. That being said, we could see some gusty winds, locally-heavy rain, and small hail in the strongest storms early on. Expect rain showers and a few thunderstorms to continue across the U.P. Friday as the low moves through northern Lake Michigan. CAMs are kind of all over the place right now with the rain coverage Friday. However, they are all showing that the rainfall will be on-and-off across the region Friday. Therefore, if you`ve got a quick outdoor activity that needs to be done Friday, you may have a few small windows of opportunity to do it. While flooding is not looking to be a concern tonight through Friday night, CAMs do show some heavier rain showers and thunderstorms occurring from time to time. Therefore, we could see some localized heavy rainfall at a few spots up to a couple of inches. With cloud cover hanging across the area and well-below normal temperatures aloft moving through, expect the high temperatures tomorrow to be notably cooler than today. This will be most noticeable in the west, where highs will struggle to get into the low to mid 60s. Meanwhile, highs may get close to 70 over in the east. The rain and thunderstorm chances depart the U.P. Friday night as the low lifts away through Lake Huron into Canada. Expect drier and more normal temperatures come Saturday as ridging builds in from the west. However, a shortwave low from the Canadian Prairies looks to bring additional rain showers and thunderstorms back over the area Sunday and Sunday night. Medium range guidance keeps this trend of shortwaves lows followed by high pressure ridging continuing through around the first half of this week. However, once we get to the end of the forecast period and beyond (last half of next week), we could see ridging remain over the area as high pressure builds over the Central CONUS. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR will prevail today at IWD/CMX/SAW. There a may be a shra/tsra late aftn/early evening around IWD and potentially SAW if anything can fire on the lake breeze, but potential of the terminal be impacted is too low to include anything in the TAF. Shra coverage will increase tonight across the w half of Upper MI as a low pres system moves ene into WI. Some tsra are also possible. With the increasing coverage of shra, conditions will deteriorate as well. Expect IWD/SAW to fall to IFR and CMX to MVFR. IFR ceilings may finally settle in at CMX into Friday morning. Winds will be light, under 10kt, thru this fcst period. && .MARINE... Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Light winds of 20 knots or less dominate the period as high pressure ridging gives way to low pressure shortwaves and vice versa over the next several days. That being said, we could see some thunderstorms over the lake during the times when shortwave lows move near/over the Upper Great Lakes, including this evening through Friday night and again Sunday through Sunday night. Ridging looks to become dominant over the Upper Great Lakes by the middle to end of next week as high pressure builds over the Central U.S. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...LC MARINE...TAP