323
FXUS63 KMQT 171845
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
245 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Light scattered lake-effect rain showers end from west to east
 this afternoon.

-Cooler and drier for midweek with the arrival of high
 pressure. Temperatures gradually warm up Thursday into Friday.

-Next chances...albeit low...for showers and maybe some thunder
 return on Saturday and again daily from Monday through
 Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Scattered light lake-effect rain showers continue across Upper
Michigan this afternoon as cold air advection has brought 850mb
temps as low as 5C over Lake Superior, where water temperatures of
20+C are currently being seen. As high pressure continues to build
in from the west the rest of today through tonight, expect the lake-
effect cloud cover and rain showers to dissipate from west to east
this afternoon, eventually ending late this afternoon over the east.
Due to the lake-effect cloud cover across the area today and the
cold air that`s dropped down from Canada, temperatures have
struggled to get into the 60s across the north central and west,
making the area feel like it`s more of a September day today.
Meanwhile, the south central and east have comfortably reached the
60s, with the Menominee airport having just reached 70 recently.

Moving into the overnight period, expect clear skies. Given the
antecedent cooler air over us tonight and the clear skies, we could
see temperatures plummet into the low 40s over the interior west
late. In addition, we could see some patchy fog develop late tonight
too, but confidence is fairly low (20-30%) given that dry air is
moving into the area and CAM soundings don`t show temperatures
reaching the dewpoints during the overnight period. Nevertheless,
given the lake-effect rainfall today, some patches of fog could
develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 509 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Surface ridge axis will continue to overspread Upper Michigan
Wednesday evening as an upper trough axis pushes farther eastward.
Time cross sections indicate a dry air column through Thursday and
Friday, which will be conducive to ample sunshine and seasonable
temperatures.  Daytime highs Thursday will return to the 70s with
mostly 80s returning by Friday through the majority of the extended
period.  Meanwhile, with little cloud cover, the nights will be able
to cool into the 50s for much of the period.  Wednesday night,
especially, will be the chilliest under clear skies and light winds
as low temperatures dip into the 40s and even some upper 30s across
the areas of the interior west that are prone to cold spots.
A 20% to 40% chance for scattered light showers today
Outside of the dry weather, there are a few exceptions. The first
will arrive on Saturday as an upper low drops southeast from the
Hudson Bay into Quebec, while its associated cold front moves
southward across Lake Superior/Upper Michigan.  With limited
moisture, widespread convective activity is not expected.  However,
some isolated showers/thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Saturday
afternoon across the south-central U.P.  Further out, the second
exception to the dry forecast will be another weak cold front that
will dip into the region on Monday and Tuesday, eventually stalling
over southern WI/MI on Wednesday.  This will be the source of daily
(20-30%) chance showers from Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

TAFs look to improve to VFR over the next few hours as the lake-
effect cloud deck gives way to high pressure ridging to our west.
The northwest to northerly gusty winds this afternoon will slowly
die down as the high pressure builds in. Expect fairly light winds
and calm/SKC conditions across the TAF sites tonight through
Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 537 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Northwest winds of 20-25 knots will prevail today, especially across
eastern Lake Superior as a trough axis moves across the lake.  After
light winds on Thursday with high pressure overhead, southwest winds
will gust to 25 knots on Friday, mainly between Isle Royale and the
Keweenaw.  By Saturday winds will shift to the north with frontal
passage and eventually become variable, but they will remain below
20 knots through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ005-006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...TDUD