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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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129 FXUS63 KMQT 182310 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 710 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Dry weather into Friday. -Lake-breeze pop-up showers possible over the east Friday afternoon. -Best chances for rain (up to 50%) in the interior west on Saturday. Impacts should be minimal. -Daily 20-30% thunderstorm chances through much of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies overhead as high pressure ridging continues to impact the Upper Midwest the rest of today through tonight. With warm air advection occuring today, temperatures are already noticeably warmer than yesterday, with the NWS office in Negaunee Township already getting to 70F as of 2 PM EDT. Expect the temperatures to rise a few more degrees this afternoon in the interior areas before the sun sets. Meanwhile, areas already behind the lake breeze and in the marine layer could see temperatures hold pretty steady for the rest of the day (such as most of the Keweenaw). Moving into tonight, expect another beautiful calm night. While the clear skies will allow the temperatures to plummet in the interior areas, especially in the interior west, the lows won`t be quite as cool as they were last night; expect low temperatures to be in the mid 40s in the interior areas to 50s near the Great Lakes. That being said, we could see the interior west overachieve again tonight and have low temperatures flirt with the upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Another repeat of today is expected for Friday, with a few exceptions. First, winds will be westerly and a little breezier over the Keweenaw. Second, temperatures will be warmer than today, with highs looking to get into the low 80s across most of the area. Third, we could (20-30% chance) see some scattered lake-breeze induced rain showers over the east Friday afternoon once the Lake Michigan and Lake Superior breezes collide. This change in the weather will be provided by a very weak shortwave low moving through the U.P. Friday; it will bring warm air advection from the west throughout the day and bring just enough instability to get the lake breezes to possibly (20-30% chance) fire off some light rain showers in the afternoon over the east. Moving into Friday night, a cold front drops down from northern Ontario and heads toward the U.P. early Saturday morning. However, CAMs show the convection dying as it moves over the lake late Friday night/early Saturday morning. A lot of this can be attributed to the better forcing being located east of the Upper Midwest and the surface stability caused by the warm Lake Superior waters. That being said, once the sun comes up, expect the convection to fire back up across the front, bringing showers and thunderstorms across our area from north to south throughout the day; the area with the highest likelihood of seeing showers and thunderstorms is the interior west (50% chance), whereas the lowest is the Keweenaw (20% chance). With the bulk shear being fairly low (20 knots or less), no severe weather is expected. Behind the cold front, expect temperatures to remain fairly similar to what we see Saturday; highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, with the warmest temperatures in the south central. Meanwhile, with high pressure ridging moving through on Sunday from the north, expect the U.P. to remain dry and for any precipitation to be south of our area for the last part of the weekend. Once we move into next week, we could see daily chances (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms across our area as weak high pressure ridging cycles over northern Ontario and weak low pressure troughing lifts through the Central U.S.. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 710 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 VFR condiitons are expected at all TAF sites through the period as high pressure will continue to dominate overhead. The only forecast concern are gusty west winds at CMX tomorrow afternoon around 20-25 kts and a N-NE wind shift behind the lake breeze at SAW in the evening, otherwise no impactful weather is expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Southwest winds look to gust up to 25 knots between northern Ontario just south of Thunder Bay and Isle Royale early this evening before dying back down to 20 knots or less again late tonight. With a very weak shortwave moving through the U.P. Friday, expect to see southwesterly winds of 20 to 25 knots return by the afternoon and to continue until the evening hours; we may even see gusts as high as 30 knots between Isle Royale and northern Ontario near Thunder Bay. Winds die down to 20 knots or less again Friday night before a cold front moves through late. While we could see a stray thunderstorm or two over the north central lake late Friday night (20% chance), CAMs show the convection dying throughout the overnight hours over Lake Superior. We could (20% chance) see some showers and thunderstorms redevelop along the cold front Saturday morning once the sun rises, but only close to the south shore before the cold front leaves the lake for Upper Michigan by the afternoon hours. Behind the cold front, expect the light winds of 20 knots or less to continue. However, we could (20% chance) see showers and thunderstorms return to the lake as soon as Monday (with the highest chances over the western lake). Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms look possible (20% chance) through the middle of next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TAP LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...BW MARINE...TAP