181
FXUS63 KMQT 190524
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
124 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake-breeze pop-up showers possible over the east this
  afternoon.

- Best chances for rain (up to 50%) in the interior west on
  Saturday. Impacts should be minimal.

- Daily 20-30% thunderstorm chances through much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies overhead as high pressure
ridging continues to impact the Upper Midwest the rest of today
through tonight. With warm air advection occuring today,
temperatures are already noticeably warmer than yesterday, with the
NWS office in Negaunee Township already getting to 70F as of 2 PM
EDT. Expect the temperatures to rise a few more degrees this
afternoon in the interior areas before the sun sets. Meanwhile,
areas already behind the lake breeze and in the marine layer could
see temperatures hold pretty steady for the rest of the day (such as
most of the Keweenaw).

Moving into tonight, expect another beautiful calm night. While the
clear skies will allow the temperatures to plummet in the interior
areas, especially in the interior west, the lows won`t be quite as
cool as they were last night; expect low temperatures to be in the
mid 40s in the interior areas to 50s near the Great Lakes. That
being said, we could see the interior west overachieve again tonight
and have low temperatures flirt with the upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Another repeat of today is expected for Friday, with a few
exceptions. First, winds will be westerly and a little breezier over
the Keweenaw. Second, temperatures will be warmer than today, with
highs looking to get into the low 80s across most of the area.
Third, we could (20-30% chance) see some scattered lake-breeze
induced rain showers over the east Friday afternoon once the Lake
Michigan and Lake Superior breezes collide. This change in the
weather will be provided by a very weak shortwave low moving through
the U.P. Friday; it will bring warm air advection from the west
throughout the day and bring just enough instability to get the lake
breezes to possibly (20-30% chance) fire off some light rain showers
in the afternoon over the east.

Moving into Friday night, a cold front drops down from northern
Ontario and heads toward the U.P. early Saturday morning. However,
CAMs show the convection dying as it moves over the lake late Friday
night/early Saturday morning. A lot of this can be attributed to the
better forcing being located east of the Upper Midwest and the
surface stability caused by the warm Lake Superior waters. That
being said, once the sun comes up, expect the convection to fire
back up across the front, bringing showers and thunderstorms across
our area from north to south throughout the day; the area with the
highest likelihood of seeing showers and thunderstorms is the
interior west (50% chance), whereas the lowest is the Keweenaw (20%
chance). With the bulk shear being fairly low (20 knots or less), no
severe weather is expected.

Behind the cold front, expect temperatures to remain fairly similar
to what we see Saturday; highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, with the
warmest temperatures in the south central. Meanwhile, with high
pressure ridging moving through on Sunday from the north, expect the
U.P. to remain dry and for any precipitation to be south of our area
for the last part of the weekend. Once we move into next week, we
could see daily chances (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms
across our area as weak high pressure ridging cycles over northern
Ontario and weak low pressure troughing lifts through the Central
U.S..

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through the period as
high pressure will continue to dominate overhead. The only forecast
concern are gusty west winds at CMX on Friday around 20-25 kts,
otherwise no impactful weather is expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Southwest winds look to gust up to 25 knots between northern Ontario
just south of Thunder Bay and Isle Royale early this evening before
dying back down to 20 knots or less again late tonight. With a very
weak shortwave moving through the U.P. Friday, expect to see
southwesterly winds of 20 to 25 knots return by the afternoon and to
continue until the evening hours; we may even see gusts as high as
30 knots between Isle Royale and northern Ontario near Thunder Bay.
Winds die down to 20 knots or less again Friday night before a cold
front moves through late. While we could see a stray thunderstorm or
two over the north central lake late Friday night (20% chance), CAMs
show the convection dying throughout the overnight hours over Lake
Superior. We could (20% chance) see some showers and thunderstorms
redevelop along the cold front Saturday morning once the sun rises,
but only close to the south shore before the cold front leaves the
lake for Upper Michigan by the afternoon hours. Behind the cold
front, expect the light winds of 20 knots or less to continue.
However, we could (20% chance) see showers and thunderstorms return
to the lake as soon as Monday (with the highest chances over the
western lake). Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms look
possible (20% chance) through the middle of next week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...TAP