876
FXUS63 KMPX 160629
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
129 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday
  evening.

- Dry weather returning this weekend and most of next week with
  temperatures near or slightly above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

First round of rain has pushed well to the east this afternoon,
but another few rounds are possible in the next 30 hours or so.
Scattered showers are beginning to develop across western MN,
with one fairly robust thunderstorm over far southeastern SD.
This activity is tied to a disturbance apparent in WV imagery
over eastern SD. The scattering of low clouds from earlier in
the day is allowing some instability to develop, which has built
to about 500 J/kg MLCAPE across far southern/western MN. The
isolated storm in SD is along the northern periphery of better
wind shear, so not really expecting much organized activity
north of that. Certainly far southern MN stands some chance at
a stronger storm early this evening, but the probability
remains quite low with less than 20 kts effective shear. Any
showers or storms from this afternoon will be mostly diurnal
and there should be a downtick in activity later this evening as
it heads east across eastern MN.

The stacked low over northwestern MN will slide southeast to EC
MN midday Friday. Wrap around showers ongoing over northeastern
ND should accompany it south with a good chance for showers
from west central to southeast MN Friday morning. Increased PoPs
to 60 percent in this corridor where CAMs are in fairly good
agreement. The showers will dissipate some during the midday
hours, but building instability could reinvigorate activity in
the afternoon on the backside of the low along the I-35
corridor. These showers and isolated storms should linger into
Friday evening, with some guidance even lingering them into
Saturday with the continued cyclonic flow.

High pressure will build into the Great Lakes and northeast for
much of next week. This should keep a tranquil pattern in place
with temperatures near or slightly above normal with broad
southerly flow into the Upper Midwest. By late next week or next
weekend, there are some indications of a system progressing
eastward across the northern U.S. which could bring some
renewed chances for precip.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Conditions will deteriorate from west to east this morning as a
large upper level low slowly lumbers eastward from the Dakotas
across MN. Ceilings will lower fairly quickly towards the
sunrise hour, with ceilings into MVFR and then IFR shortly
thereafter or by late morning. Scattered showers will develop
under the circulation of the low, drift in-and-out of each TAF`s
airspace from late this morning through much of the afternoon. A
few thunderstorms are possible, mainly over central-eastern MN
into western WI so have highlighted those hours via TEMPO
groups. Even when the rain ends by late day into early evening,
low stratus will remain in place through this evening into early
Saturday morning.

KMSP...Conditions will start out as VFR but will only last
through this morning`s push as MVFR conditions are likely
shortly after sunrise. A few showers may move across the field
during the tail end of the Friday morning push but more frequent
intermittent showers are likely from late morning through early
afternoon, including a few which may contain CB/TS with brief
downpours. Showers remain in the forecast through the afternoon
push while ceilings drop through the MVFR ranges. Precip looks
to no longer be a threat after dark this evening but ceilings
will also drop to IFR by that time and last potentially longer
than currently advertised.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...JPC