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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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876 FXUS63 KMPX 160629 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 129 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday evening. - Dry weather returning this weekend and most of next week with temperatures near or slightly above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 First round of rain has pushed well to the east this afternoon, but another few rounds are possible in the next 30 hours or so. Scattered showers are beginning to develop across western MN, with one fairly robust thunderstorm over far southeastern SD. This activity is tied to a disturbance apparent in WV imagery over eastern SD. The scattering of low clouds from earlier in the day is allowing some instability to develop, which has built to about 500 J/kg MLCAPE across far southern/western MN. The isolated storm in SD is along the northern periphery of better wind shear, so not really expecting much organized activity north of that. Certainly far southern MN stands some chance at a stronger storm early this evening, but the probability remains quite low with less than 20 kts effective shear. Any showers or storms from this afternoon will be mostly diurnal and there should be a downtick in activity later this evening as it heads east across eastern MN. The stacked low over northwestern MN will slide southeast to EC MN midday Friday. Wrap around showers ongoing over northeastern ND should accompany it south with a good chance for showers from west central to southeast MN Friday morning. Increased PoPs to 60 percent in this corridor where CAMs are in fairly good agreement. The showers will dissipate some during the midday hours, but building instability could reinvigorate activity in the afternoon on the backside of the low along the I-35 corridor. These showers and isolated storms should linger into Friday evening, with some guidance even lingering them into Saturday with the continued cyclonic flow. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes and northeast for much of next week. This should keep a tranquil pattern in place with temperatures near or slightly above normal with broad southerly flow into the Upper Midwest. By late next week or next weekend, there are some indications of a system progressing eastward across the northern U.S. which could bring some renewed chances for precip. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Conditions will deteriorate from west to east this morning as a large upper level low slowly lumbers eastward from the Dakotas across MN. Ceilings will lower fairly quickly towards the sunrise hour, with ceilings into MVFR and then IFR shortly thereafter or by late morning. Scattered showers will develop under the circulation of the low, drift in-and-out of each TAF`s airspace from late this morning through much of the afternoon. A few thunderstorms are possible, mainly over central-eastern MN into western WI so have highlighted those hours via TEMPO groups. Even when the rain ends by late day into early evening, low stratus will remain in place through this evening into early Saturday morning. KMSP...Conditions will start out as VFR but will only last through this morning`s push as MVFR conditions are likely shortly after sunrise. A few showers may move across the field during the tail end of the Friday morning push but more frequent intermittent showers are likely from late morning through early afternoon, including a few which may contain CB/TS with brief downpours. Showers remain in the forecast through the afternoon push while ceilings drop through the MVFR ranges. Precip looks to no longer be a threat after dark this evening but ceilings will also drop to IFR by that time and last potentially longer than currently advertised. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...JPC