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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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617 FXUS63 KMPX 160849 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 349 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers today with a few rumbles of thunder possible. - Showers linger into Saturday, with dry weather expected Sunday into most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 An upper level low remains parked over Minnesota today, with the occluded surface low slowly migrating eastwards out of northern Minnesota through the day. With these lower heights aloft & plenty of synoptic lift from the background cyclonic flow, scattered showers will continue across the entire area through the day today. The coverage is expected to become more widespread as instability increases late this morning and afternoon, along with the general robustness of the rain showers. A few fumbles of thunder are possible at times this afternoon as well with the strongest showers. It won`t rain all day today, but most areas will see at least a brief heavy downpour or two. The surface low will be east of the area over the western Great Lakes by Saturday, but residual cyclonic flow aloft will generate another round of scattered showers Saturday. These should be weaker & more isolated than today`s, with the greatest chance for rain across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Sprawling Canadian high pressure moves into the the region falling this system, with the high eventually stalling out over the northeastern CONUS by midweek. This high will keep any weather systems well to the south and west of the region, with an extended stretch of dry weather expected Sunday through much of next week. temperatures will remain close to normal values for mid-August, with slightly cooler temperatures more likely early in the week & slightly warmer temperatures later in the week as southerly flow develops on the west side of the high. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Conditions will deteriorate from west to east this morning as a large upper level low slowly lumbers eastward from the Dakotas across MN. Ceilings will lower fairly quickly towards the sunrise hour, with ceilings into MVFR and then IFR shortly thereafter or by late morning. Scattered showers will develop under the circulation of the low, drift in-and-out of each TAF`s airspace from late this morning through much of the afternoon. A few thunderstorms are possible, mainly over central-eastern MN into western WI so have highlighted those hours via TEMPO groups. Even when the rain ends by late day into early evening, low stratus will remain in place through this evening into early Saturday morning. KMSP...Conditions will start out as VFR but will only last through this morning`s push as MVFR conditions are likely shortly after sunrise. A few showers may move across the field during the tail end of the Friday morning push but more frequent intermittent showers are likely from late morning through early afternoon, including a few which may contain CB/TS with brief downpours. Showers remain in the forecast through the afternoon push while ceilings drop through the MVFR ranges. Precip looks to no longer be a threat after dark this evening but ceilings will also drop to IFR by that time and last potentially longer than currently advertised. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...JPC