825
FXUS63 KMPX 161144
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
644 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers today with a few rumbles of thunder
  possible.

- Showers linger into Saturday, with dry weather expected Sunday
  into most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

An upper level low remains parked over Minnesota today, with the
occluded surface low slowly migrating eastward out of northern
Minnesota through the day. With these lower heights aloft &
plenty of synoptic lift from the background cyclonic flow,
scattered showers will continue across the entire area through
the day today. The coverage is expected to become more
widespread as instability increases late this morning and
afternoon, along with the general robustness of the rain
showers. A few rumbles of thunder are possible at times this
afternoon as well with the strongest showers. It won`t rain all
day today, but most areas will see at least a brief heavy
downpour or two. The surface low will be east of the area over
the western Great Lakes by Saturday, but residual cyclonic flow
aloft will generate another round of scattered showers Saturday.
These should be weaker & more isolated than today`s, with the
greatest chance for rain across eastern Minnesota & western
Wisconsin.

Sprawling Canadian high pressure moves into the the region
following this system, with the high eventually stalling out
over the northeastern CONUS by midweek. This high will keep any
weather systems well to the south and west of the region, with
an extended stretch of dry weather expected Sunday through much
of next week. Temperatures will remain close to normal values
for mid-August, with slightly cooler temperatures more likely
early in the week & slightly warmer temperatures later in the
week as southerly flow develops on the west side of the high.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Conditions will deteriorate from west to east this morning as a
large upper level low slowly lumbers eastward from the Dakotas
across MN. Ceilings will lower quickly past sunrise, with
ceilings into MVFR and then IFR shortly thereafter, and
certainly by late morning. Scattered showers will develop under
the circulation of the low, drift in-and-out of each TAF`s
airspace from late this morning through much of the afternoon. A
few thunderstorms are possible, mainly over central-eastern MN
into western WI so have highlighted those hours via TEMPO
groups. Even when the rain ends by late day into early evening,
low stratus will remain in place through this evening into early
Saturday morning.

KMSP...Conditions will start out as VFR but will only last
through this morning`s push as MVFR conditions are likely
shortly after sunrise. A few showers may move across the field
during the tail end of the morning push but more frequent
intermittent showers are likely from late morning through early
afternoon, including a few which may contain CB/TS with brief
downpours. Showers remain in the forecast through the afternoon
push while ceilings drop through the MVFR ranges. Precip looks
to no longer be a threat after dark this evening but ceilings
may drop to IFR by that time and last potentially longer than
currently advertised.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...JPC