![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
181 FXUS63 KMPX 161727 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1227 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers today with a few rumbles of thunder possible. - Showers linger into Saturday, with dry weather expected Sunday into most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 An upper level low remains parked over Minnesota today, with the occluded surface low slowly migrating eastward out of northern Minnesota through the day. With these lower heights aloft & plenty of synoptic lift from the background cyclonic flow, scattered showers will continue across the entire area through the day today. The coverage is expected to become more widespread as instability increases late this morning and afternoon, along with the general robustness of the rain showers. A few rumbles of thunder are possible at times this afternoon as well with the strongest showers. It won`t rain all day today, but most areas will see at least a brief heavy downpour or two. The surface low will be east of the area over the western Great Lakes by Saturday, but residual cyclonic flow aloft will generate another round of scattered showers Saturday. These should be weaker & more isolated than today`s, with the greatest chance for rain across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Sprawling Canadian high pressure moves into the the region following this system, with the high eventually stalling out over the northeastern CONUS by midweek. This high will keep any weather systems well to the south and west of the region, with an extended stretch of dry weather expected Sunday through much of next week. Temperatures will remain close to normal values for mid-August, with slightly cooler temperatures more likely early in the week & slightly warmer temperatures later in the week as southerly flow develops on the west side of the high. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Low clouds and showers are expected to persist through much of the period. IFR will be the predominant flight cat with some low end MVFR possible. A slight improvement to more MVFR conditions is expected this evening before cigs/vis lower again early tomorrow morning. KMSP...As mentioned above, low end MVFR to IFR conditions are expected throughout much of the forecast period. Removed any thunder mention for now since chances look very low. By the end of the period, MVFR/VFR may be in sight, but for now, kept it MVFR. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...Dye