181
FXUS63 KMPX 161727
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1227 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers today with a few rumbles of thunder
  possible.

- Showers linger into Saturday, with dry weather expected Sunday
  into most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

An upper level low remains parked over Minnesota today, with the
occluded surface low slowly migrating eastward out of northern
Minnesota through the day. With these lower heights aloft &
plenty of synoptic lift from the background cyclonic flow,
scattered showers will continue across the entire area through
the day today. The coverage is expected to become more
widespread as instability increases late this morning and
afternoon, along with the general robustness of the rain
showers. A few rumbles of thunder are possible at times this
afternoon as well with the strongest showers. It won`t rain all
day today, but most areas will see at least a brief heavy
downpour or two. The surface low will be east of the area over
the western Great Lakes by Saturday, but residual cyclonic flow
aloft will generate another round of scattered showers Saturday.
These should be weaker & more isolated than today`s, with the
greatest chance for rain across eastern Minnesota & western
Wisconsin.

Sprawling Canadian high pressure moves into the the region
following this system, with the high eventually stalling out
over the northeastern CONUS by midweek. This high will keep any
weather systems well to the south and west of the region, with
an extended stretch of dry weather expected Sunday through much
of next week. Temperatures will remain close to normal values
for mid-August, with slightly cooler temperatures more likely
early in the week & slightly warmer temperatures later in the
week as southerly flow develops on the west side of the high.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Low clouds and showers are expected to persist through much of
the period. IFR will be the predominant flight cat with some low
end MVFR possible. A slight improvement to more MVFR conditions
is expected this evening before cigs/vis lower again early
tomorrow morning.

KMSP...As mentioned above, low end MVFR to IFR conditions are
expected throughout much of the forecast period. Removed any
thunder mention for now since chances look very low. By the end
of the period, MVFR/VFR may be in sight, but for now, kept it
MVFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Dye