054
FXUS63 KMPX 110747
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
247 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon & evening - the
  strongest could contain hail & gusty winds.

- Next chance for widespread rain comes Tuesday into Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

The thunderstorm complex over Iowa continues to track due-easterly
along Interstate 80, meaning we`ll continue to have a quiet
night with just patchy areas of fog through sunrise as the only
weather issue. A cold front will slowly move east across
Minnesota through this afternoon & evening, although the upper
level forcing required to initiate scattered showers &
thunderstorms along this front doesn`t really arrive until this
evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance doesn`t have
thunderstorms developing across the eastern dakotas & western
Wisconsin late this afternoon, & slowly spreading into eastern
Minnesota through the night before dissipating over western
Wisconsin Saturday morning. An ok environment for strong to
severe storms will accompany the early storms late this
afternoon across western Minnesota, but weak deep shear means
that any storms strong enough to produce hail or gusty winds
will likely be sporadic & brief.

Saturday looks to be a great day temperature-wise, with cooler
temperatures in the 70s & drier dewpoints behind the cold front,
but northwest flow aloft will advect another round of Canadian
wildfire smoke into the region. Hazardous air quality looks to
be mainly limited to northern Minnesota where the smoke
concentration will be greatest, but expect murky skies to stick
around through the weekend. Warm & muggy weather returns Sunday
& continues into Tuesday with afternoon highs around 90
degrees.

Once today`s front is through the area, the forecast looks dry
with high pressure generally influencing the Upper Midwest
through Monday. The next chance for widespread rain looks to
come Tuesday into Wednesday with ensemble guidance suggesting a
low developing along the US-Canada border & tracking over the
area. Ensemble guidance has the heaviest precipitation across
northern & central Minnesota & Wisconsin, and shows at least
medium (40-60%) chances for widespread rainfall amounts of at
least one inch. Temperatures will be much cooler midweek as
well given the likelihood of widespread precipitation & cloud
cover. Ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for temperatures
10-15 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Iowa will be lit up like a Christmas tree most of the night, but
this activity will stay south of MN. Our big uncertainty
revolves around how widespread low stratus and fog become
tonight. We`re already seeing the beginnings of it over
southeast MN, but a dense canopy of anvil debris leads to a lot
of uncertainty with just how widespread the fog and stratus
become. Given all of that uncertainty, have hinted at potential
problems Friday morning with the FM groups that begin around
10z. After that, much of Friday looks dry, with a weak cold
front looking to be a focus for convection development after 20z
from central down toward southwest MN, though model agreement
on what an afternoon/evening round of storms may look like is
pretty poor, so only have prob30s for that potential at this
point.

KMSP...We will have to keep a close eye on developing
fog/stratus down around RST as this could drift MSPs direction
through the night, potentially impacting the morning push with
LIFR cigs and/or vis. Storm potential for Friday keeps drifting
farther out in time and it may not be until closer to 03z before
we see a shra/tsra threat at MSP. It`s certainly no guarantee
that MSP will even see rain with this fropa.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...MPG