816
FXUS63 KMPX 162021
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
321 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers linger into Saturday for eastern MN and western WI

- Dry weather expected most of the next week, with temperatures
  close to normal

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

SPC mesoanalysis this afternoon shows a stacked low near the
western tip of Lake Superior. Moist cyclonic flow around this
low has resulted in the widespread showers we are seeing on
radar this afternoon. These showers are being primarily driven
by diurnal destabilization, so once the sun sets, these showers
will dissipate. We will continue to see batches of cloud cover
rotate around the low through the night, which could result in
the stray shower occurring, but for the most part we are
expecting dry conditions. Diurnal destabilization picks up
again on Saturday, which will again initiate scattered showers.
However, there will be some differences with what we see on
Saturday from what is happening today. First, the low will be
farther east, which means the shower threat will only cover
eastern MN and western WI. In addition, the coverage is not
expected to be as widespread on Saturday when compared to what
we are seeing this afternoon.

Sunday through next week, the weather turns quiet. As the upper
low bringing us the rain today moves east through the weekend,
it will be replaced by upper level ridging that will remain
centered over the central CONUS through the course of next week.
Besides the upper ridging, at the surface, a dry high pressure
will remain centered over the Great Lakes. The net result is
what looks to be another several day stretch of dry weather with
temperatures near normal. Any precipitation next week would
come from a shortwave or weak surface front that will be fading
away as they encounter our ridge and dry surface high. The NBM
reflects this a long run of non-mentionable PoPs (less than 15%)
next week. There are signs that we may start to work some
warmer air up here for the opening weekend of the State Fair,
but it does not look like it would be anything significant in
terms of heat, just the potential for highs to reach more into
the mid/upper 80s. By the end of next week the normal highs are
already back down to 80 as summer slowly begins to fade away.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Low clouds and showers are expected to persist through much of
the period. IFR will be the predominant flight cat with some low
end MVFR possible. A slight improvement to more MVFR conditions
is expected this evening before cigs/vis lower again early
tomorrow morning.

KMSP...As mentioned above, low end MVFR to IFR conditions are
expected throughout much of the forecast period. Removed any
thunder mention for now since chances look very low. By the end
of the period, MVFR/VFR may be in sight, but for now, kept it
MVFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...Dye