069
FXUS63 KMPX 101733
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1233 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain possible tomorrow night into Monday south of I-94.

- Pattern shift likely next week, resulting in an increase in
  temps and a more active pattern to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Welcome to the weekend! The slow-moving mid-level low will
continue to make its way east, gradually decreasing any impacts
from CAA across the region. In other words, we can expect decreased
cloud cover and PoPs, and slightly warmer temps each day. Today
will continue to be a bit breezy as the surface warms up during
the afternoon, and 20-30 mph winds mix down from 7-8k feet.
Relief from the wind will come tomorrow as the strongest
northwest winds associated with the mid-level low shift east. A
shortwave is expected to track southeast from the northern
Rockies, with the main area of precip expected to stay southwest
of Minnesota. That said, portions of southwest and southern
Minnesota could see up to a tenth or so depending on how far
north/south the system moves through overnight Sunday.

There has not been much change to the extended forecast. Ensembles
continue to highlight the idea of a pattern shift, with ridging
across the central CONUS and broad troughing over the east coast. As
our southerly flow pulls moisture north, deterministic models
entertain the idea of a shortwave or two producing a more active
period from the middle to late part of next week. This shift in
pattern also means we can expect relatively consistent
conditions during the work week, with highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s, partly to mostly cloudy skies, and somewhat tame
southerly winds around 5-15 mph each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

We`re on the diurnal upswing with both wind speeds and cloud
cover now. Both of these drop off with the setting sun and with
the high moving overhead for Sunday, we will not see a return of
gusty winds, with the cu field on Sunday being confined to
eastern MN and western WI.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc -SHRA/TS. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...MPG