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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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069 FXUS63 KMPX 101733 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1233 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain possible tomorrow night into Monday south of I-94. - Pattern shift likely next week, resulting in an increase in temps and a more active pattern to end the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Welcome to the weekend! The slow-moving mid-level low will continue to make its way east, gradually decreasing any impacts from CAA across the region. In other words, we can expect decreased cloud cover and PoPs, and slightly warmer temps each day. Today will continue to be a bit breezy as the surface warms up during the afternoon, and 20-30 mph winds mix down from 7-8k feet. Relief from the wind will come tomorrow as the strongest northwest winds associated with the mid-level low shift east. A shortwave is expected to track southeast from the northern Rockies, with the main area of precip expected to stay southwest of Minnesota. That said, portions of southwest and southern Minnesota could see up to a tenth or so depending on how far north/south the system moves through overnight Sunday. There has not been much change to the extended forecast. Ensembles continue to highlight the idea of a pattern shift, with ridging across the central CONUS and broad troughing over the east coast. As our southerly flow pulls moisture north, deterministic models entertain the idea of a shortwave or two producing a more active period from the middle to late part of next week. This shift in pattern also means we can expect relatively consistent conditions during the work week, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, partly to mostly cloudy skies, and somewhat tame southerly winds around 5-15 mph each day. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 We`re on the diurnal upswing with both wind speeds and cloud cover now. Both of these drop off with the setting sun and with the high moving overhead for Sunday, we will not see a return of gusty winds, with the cu field on Sunday being confined to eastern MN and western WI. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts. WED...VFR. Chc -SHRA/TS. Wind SE 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...MPG