339
FXUS63 KMPX 101949
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
249 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain possible tomorrow night into Monday along and south
  of the MN River Valley.

- Next period of active weather to come Wednesday into Thursday
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

We will not accept any complaints about the weather today, with
about as perfect weather conditions as one could expected for August
10th. The only real change for Sunday from today is we`ll have high
pressure overhead on Sunday, which means no more gusty northwest
winds.

Sunday night, models continue to show a weak shortwave scooting
across the northern Plains. There`s a pretty even split in both
the deterministic models and CAMs with how far north light rain
with this wave makes it, with about half looking like the GFS
in bringing rain as far north as the MN River Valley and the
other half like the ECMWF in keeping almost all of the QPF
south of MN. Given where the HREF mean h5 speed max is located,
along with where the href tacks a weak h7 low and surface warm
front, the forcing would say the southern solutions are looking
more likely for Sunday night. Instability is near non existent
Sunday night, so this will be just a general shower threat, with
no concerns for severe weather or excessive rainfall.

Behind this wave on Tuesday, we`ll see h5 heights build as a ridge
moves in from the west. This will give us dry weather for Tuesday,
but this ridges slips off to our east on Wednesday, setting the
table for a more active period of weather Wednesday and Thursday.
There`s still lots of spread with the timing of this feature, so
it`s hard to say much more than there will be periods of showers and
storms, with the best chance looking to come Wednesday night. At the
very least, it doesn`t look like a favorable setup for a significant
severe weather threat, but with pwats again increasing over 1.5" and
some form of a LLJ being in place, some localized heavy rain could
be possible.

For the end of next week, we could see some lingering showers on
Friday, but for the most part, it looks like we`ll be switching
around to a northerly surface flow, with the weather trending drier
and pleasant for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

We`re on the diurnal upswing with both wind speeds and cloud
cover now. Both of these drop off with the setting sun and with
the high moving overhead for Sunday, we will not see a return of
gusty winds, with the cu field on Sunday being confined to
eastern MN and western WI.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc -SHRA/TS. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG