251
FXUS63 KMPX 110024
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
724 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain possible tomorrow night into Monday along and south
  of the MN River Valley.

- Next period of active weather to come Wednesday into Thursday
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

We will not accept any complaints about the weather today, with
about as perfect weather conditions as one could expected for
August 10th. The only real change for Sunday from today is
we`ll have high pressure overhead on Sunday, which means no more
gusty northwest winds.

Sunday night, models continue to show a weak shortwave scooting
across the northern Plains. There`s a pretty even split in both
the deterministic models and CAMs with how far north light rain
with this wave makes it, with about half looking like the GFS in
bringing rain as far north as the MN River Valley and the other
half like the ECMWF in keeping almost all of the QPF south of
MN. Given where the HREF mean h5 speed max is located, along
with where the href tacks a weak h7 low and surface warm front,
the forcing would say the southern solutions are looking more
likely for Sunday night. Instability is near non existent Sunday
night, so this will be just a general shower threat, with no
concerns for severe weather or excessive rainfall.

Behind this wave on Tuesday, we`ll see h5 heights build as a
ridge moves in from the west. This will give us dry weather for
Tuesday, but this ridges slips off to our east on Wednesday,
setting the table for a more active period of weather Wednesday
and Thursday. There`s still lots of spread with the timing of
this feature, so it`s hard to say much more than there will be
periods of showers and storms, with the best chance looking to
come Wednesday night. At the very least, it doesn`t look like a
favorable setup for a significant severe weather threat, but
with pwats again increasing over 1.5" and some form of a LLJ
being in place, some localized heavy rain could be possible.

For the end of next week, we could see some lingering showers on
Friday, but for the most part, it looks like we`ll be switching
around to a northerly surface flow, with the weather trending
drier and pleasant for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 713 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Solid VFR conditions expected throughout this duration.
Diurnally-driven cumulus clouds will diminish through this
evening with clear skies expected overnight. Diurnally-driven
fair wx cumulus clouds will again develop late tomorrow morning,
but with decks closer to 10 kft than 5 kft. NW winds around 10
kts at initialization will go calm to near-calm later this
evening through sunrise Sunday morning, then increase to 4-7kts
by late Sunday morning with variable directions.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc -SHRA/TS. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...JPC