![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
978 FXUS63 KMPX 162316 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 616 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers linger into Saturday for eastern MN and western WI - Dry weather expected most of the next week, with temperatures close to normal && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 SPC mesoanalysis this afternoon shows a stacked low near the western tip of Lake Superior. Moist cyclonic flow around this low has resulted in the widespread showers we are seeing on radar this afternoon. These showers are being primarily driven by diurnal destabilization, so once the sun sets, these showers will dissipate. We will continue to see batches of cloud cover rotate around the low through the night, which could result in the stray shower occurring, but for the most part we are expecting dry conditions. Diurnal destabilization picks up again on Saturday, which will again initiate scattered showers. However, there will be some differences with what we see on Saturday from what is happening today. First, the low will be farther east, which means the shower threat will only cover eastern MN and western WI. In addition, the coverage is not expected to be as widespread on Saturday when compared to what we are seeing this afternoon. Sunday through next week, the weather turns quiet. As the upper low bringing us the rain today moves east through the weekend, it will be replaced by upper level ridging that will remain centered over the central CONUS through the course of next week. Besides the upper ridging, at the surface, a dry high pressure will remain centered over the Great Lakes. The net result is what looks to be another several day stretch of dry weather with temperatures near normal. Any precipitation next week would come from a shortwave or weak surface front that will be fading away as they encounter our ridge and dry surface high. The NBM reflects this a long run of non-mentionable PoPs (less than 15%) next week. There are signs that we may start to work some warmer air up here for the opening weekend of the State Fair, but it does not look like it would be anything significant in terms of heat, just the potential for highs to reach more into the mid/upper 80s. By the end of next week the normal highs are already back down to 80 as summer slowly begins to fade away. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Scattered showers continue this evening with mostly VFR, but some periods of MVFR as showers move through. Tonight ceilings will drop and a fog/mist will form. MVFR tonight with IFR in the morning. Ceilings will lift through the day on Saturday with VFR returning in the afternoon or evening. Winds gusty across western Minnesota this evening, but will drop down tonight with light winds expected. KMSP...VFR with scattered light showers that could cause periods of high MVFR. Tonight ceilings will fall into IFR. Ceilings start to rise tomorrow morning with MVFR by late morning and VFR by evening. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind variable around 5 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPG AVIATION...NDC