476
FXUS63 KMPX 242305
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
605 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of heavy rain are expected late tonight
  through Thursday evening and may lead to some flooding
  concerns.

- Weekend looks hot, humid, and unsettled with more showers and
  storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

A scattered to broken cloud deck lies across the southern third of
Minnesota this afternoon as the stalled surface front continues to
hang out on the Minnesota/Iowa border. A few radar returns have
popped up along the I-90 corridor, but the pocket of dry air at
850mb is too much for these showers to overcome and is also
effectively keeping the more widespread convection to our south.
Overnight, impressive amounts of moisture will surge northward with
an 850mb front as a series of weak 500mb shortwaves traverses
Minnesota Wednesday and Thursday. This, combined with an increasing
850mb jet, will allow for bouts of heavy rain through Thursday
evening. Forecast pwats are still looking quite high with values
exceeding 150-170% of normal. Models have shifted the axis of
heaviest rain a bit further south and east than 24 hours ago, which
has lowered QPF slightly across the Minnesota River Valley and west
central Minnesota. Still, a large portion of this region will see
around a half inch to an inch of rain through Wednesday night with 1-
2" for southern and eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. There
also appears to be two distinct waves of precip; one during the day
Wednesday and another developing Thursday afternoon. It`s the
Thursday afternoon round that has bumped up totals for the eastern
half of the forecast area (particularly western Wisconsin), as
the best forcing and instability move off to the east.

Rainfall totals for the two day period still range from 1-2" for the
majority of the area, with an additional inch or so for eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin. This set up could lead to a
situation where storms train over the same area, which would up QPF
amounts. CAMs are still putting out amounts of 4-5"+ where training
storms develop. The threat for widespread flash flooding is
currently not expected, but it will depend on where exactly the two
main rounds of rain overlap. Confidence is still on the lower end on
realizing those higher amounts and it`s likely a scenario that we
won`t be able to pin down until the event is already well underway.

Friday will be dry for the majority of the day with clouds clearing
from west to east through the afternoon. Temperatures will warm back
into the 80s following two days of highs only making it into the
upper 60s to mid 70s. A trough will move across northern Minnesota
and could lead to some shower chances overnight into Saturday
morning for central Minnesota. Saturday, a warm front will lift
northward and we`ll see another round of Tds in the 70s with
temperatures in the upper 80s. This will lead to plenty of
instability for an approaching cold front to work with as we head
into the afternoon and evening hours. Depending on how the timing of
the front plays out, we could see a few strong to severe storms. The
second half of the weekend looks to be unsettled with continued
shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

VFR to begin the period with roughly 9-12 hours before -SHRA
arrives area wide with embedded -TSRA. CIGS will gradually drop
to MVFR and eventually IFR as -SHRA overspreads the area, with
-TSRA chances diminishing after roughly 18z. In terms of -TSRA,
 we are looking at fairly widespread thunder while showers are
 ongoing rather than larger single storms. Winds will shift
 towards 060-090 and remain around 10-12kts at their peak after
 18z.

KMSP...Confidence has increased in embedded -TSRA within the
prevailing -SHRA from 11-18z with chances for thunder
diminishing after 18z. Towards the end of the period, -SHRA
intensity and spread will decrease, however it will increase
again after the period ends as -SHRA continues on Thursday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR/IFR/SHRA. Wind E 5-10kts.
FRI...-SHRA early, MVFR/IFR. Wind N 5-10kts.
SAT...VFR, chc -TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...TDH