779
FXUS63 KMPX 110837
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
337 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain possible tomorrow night into Monday along and south
  of the MN River Valley.

- Next period of active weather to come Wednesday into Thursday
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Another solid weather day is in store for the region as high
pressure will keep the winds and cloud cover to a minimum.
Temperatures will continue to rise a bit, peaking in the mid-upper
70s. Precipitation chances will generally stay northeast and
southwest of central MN and western WI today, however scattered
showers on the northern periphery of a weakening system is possible
overnight as a notable shortwave progresses southeast from the
Dakotas. The few hundredths of precip associated with this
system should stay confined to the area along and south of the
MN River Valley. Any precip and overcast conditions are expected
to begin clearing out by late morning, making for another nice
day tomorrow.

Upper level ridging will start to build in from the west as early as
Tuesday, resulting in our warmest day in about a week (low 80s).
Albeit still at or slightly above normal for this time of year
(upper 70s to low 80s). Relatively strong and persistent southerly
winds will support PWAT values of 1.5"+ as far north as Nunavut in
Canada, setting the stage for widespread rain chances mid week. The
severe weather threat will largely depend on timing for when the
system moves through, which looks to be favored for some time
Wednesday night into Thursday when instability is lacking. The
combination of the LLJ and substantial PWATs will certainly be
enough to produce localized heavy rain in excess of 1".

Many of the ensembles entertain this idea of the trough slowing
down and weakening over the Great Lakes region to the end the
week. This could lead to lingering scattered showers for a few
days following the main show on Wed/Thu. Northerly flow on the
backside of this low should lead to another slight cool down,
and relatively pleasant weather conditions for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Solid VFR conditions expected throughout this duration.
Clear skies are expected overnight followed by diurnally-driven
fair wx cumulus clouds will developing by late tomorrow
morning, but decks will be closer to 10 kft than 5 kft. Winds
will be calm to near-calm through sunrise Sunday morning, then
increase to 4-7kts, mainly from the WNW if not variable, by
late Sunday morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc -SHRA/TS. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC