810
FXUS63 KMPX 111113
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
613 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain possible tomorrow night into Monday along and south
  of the MN River Valley.

- Next period of active weather to come Wednesday into Thursday
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Another solid weather day is in store for the region as high
pressure will keep the winds and cloud cover to a minimum.
Temperatures will continue to rise a bit, peaking in the mid-upper
70s. Precipitation chances will generally stay northeast and
southwest of central MN and western WI today, however scattered
showers on the northern periphery of a weakening system is possible
overnight as a notable shortwave progresses southeast from the
Dakotas. The few hundredths of precip associated with this
system should stay confined to the area along and south of the
MN River Valley. Any precip and overcast conditions are expected
to begin clearing out by late morning, making for another nice
day tomorrow.

Upper level ridging will start to build in from the west as early as
Tuesday, resulting in our warmest day in about a week (low 80s).
Albeit still at or slightly above normal for this time of year
(upper 70s to low 80s). Relatively strong and persistent southerly
winds will support PWAT values of 1.5"+ as far north as Nunavut in
Canada, setting the stage for widespread rain chances mid week. The
severe weather threat will largely depend on timing for when the
system moves through, which looks to be favored for some time
Wednesday night into Thursday when instability is lacking. The
combination of the LLJ and substantial PWATs will certainly be
enough to produce localized heavy rain in excess of 1".

Many of the ensembles entertain this idea of the trough slowing
down and weakening over the Great Lakes region to the end the
week. This could lead to lingering scattered showers for a few
days following the main show on Wed/Thu. Northerly flow on the
backside of this low should lead to another slight cool down,
and relatively pleasant weather conditions for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals. Winds will be light
and variable today, with mostly clear skies. Mid-level clouds
will move in from the south overnight tonight as rain chances
increase in far southern MN. MKT and RWF are the most likely to
see precip, but even those chances are low enough to omit from
the TAF.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc -SHRA/TS. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...PV