547
FXUS63 KMPX 111909
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
209 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Models trending toward the MPX area remaining dry tonight
  into Monday morning.

- Best chance for rain over the next week comes Wednesday night.
  The threat for hazardous weather remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

It`s a picture perfect afternoon across the area with light winds,
low humidity, sunshine, and temperatures in the mid 70s. Water vapor
imagery does show a short wave out by the the Black Hills that will
be tracking southeast into Iowa tonight. Models have been trending
toward a drier solution for the MPX area, with the main swath of QPF
with this wave projected to fall from the SD/ND/MT border, southeast
into northwest MO. This keeps the bulk of the moisture southwest of
the MPX area, with the NBM gradually shifting PoPs out of our area
through the day. The PWAT gradient will come in into southwest MN
tonight, but other than that, it`s hard to find anything to hang
your hat on for saying why we would see rain and we`re not expecting
much more than some sprinkles or occasional light rain down by
Fairmont.

Monday and Tuesday will see healthy diurnal cu fields, but we`re not
expecting that cu field to be deep enough to generate any
precipitation. Biggest change that will happen Tuesday is we`ll
start to see southerly winds become established, with dewpoints
slowly creeping back up toward the 60s.

Wednesday and Thursday still brings us our best chance of rain over
the next week. Spread in the ensembles and deterministic models
continues to slowly diminish, but remains. The main trough still
looks to come through Wednesday night into Thursday morning, which
is when the NBM continues to slide a region of likely PoPs across
the area. Forecast soundings show fairly saturated soundings moving
through, which means instability is quite limited. For that reason,
we are still not anticipating much of a severe risk. PWATs are
forecast to approach 2", so the threat for some heavy downpours will
exist, but at this point, the LLJ looks strongest down in Iowa, with
a weaker feature up in MN. So the heavy rain threat looks low at
best for the MPX area.

For the end of the week into next weekend, models agree on the wave
that comes through mid-week closing off and slowing down over/near
the Great Lakes, but differ on where this happens. Mean H5 patterns
from the GEPS/GEFS/EPS would say this h5 low development happens to
our east over the Great Lakes, so a soaking rain locally on Friday
like the 11.12 GFS has looks pretty unlikely at this point. What
does look likely is that we`ll see little in the way of airmass
change next week, which means daily highs in the mid 70s to low 80s,
with dewpoints and lows down around 60.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Another quiet period in store with the main points being
gradually increasing coverage of high level clouds, with some
BKN100 cigs possible for the southern half of sites after
sunset, and the other main point being a chance for patchy fog
for a few sites from 08-12z. Otherwise no major impacts with
winds remaining below 5kts varying in direction across all
locations.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, chc BR early. Wind SE 5kts.
WED...VFR, chc -TSRA late. Wind SE 5-10kts.
THU...MVFR/VFR, sct -TSRA. Wind SE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...TDH