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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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291 FXUS63 KMPX 120356 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1056 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Models trending toward the MPX area remaining dry tonight into Monday morning. - Best chance for rain over the next week comes Wednesday night. The threat for hazardous weather remains low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 It`s a picture perfect afternoon across the area with light winds, low humidity, sunshine, and temperatures in the mid 70s. Water vapor imagery does show a short wave out by the the Black Hills that will be tracking southeast into Iowa tonight. Models have been trending toward a drier solution for the MPX area, with the main swath of QPF with this wave projected to fall from the SD/ND/MT border, southeast into northwest MO. This keeps the bulk of the moisture southwest of the MPX area, with the NBM gradually shifting PoPs out of our area through the day. The PWAT gradient will come in into southwest MN tonight, but other than that, it`s hard to find anything to hang your hat on for saying why we would see rain and we`re not expecting much more than some sprinkles or occasional light rain down by Fairmont. Monday and Tuesday will see healthy diurnal cu fields, but we`re not expecting that cu field to be deep enough to generate any precipitation. Biggest change that will happen Tuesday is we`ll start to see southerly winds become established, with dewpoints slowly creeping back up toward the 60s. Wednesday and Thursday still brings us our best chance of rain over the next week. Spread in the ensembles and deterministic models continues to slowly diminish, but remains. The main trough still looks to come through Wednesday night into Thursday morning, which is when the NBM continues to slide a region of likely PoPs across the area. Forecast soundings show fairly saturated soundings moving through, which means instability is quite limited. For that reason, we are still not anticipating much of a severe risk. PWATs are forecast to approach 2", so the threat for some heavy downpours will exist, but at this point, the LLJ looks strongest down in Iowa, with a weaker feature up in MN. So the heavy rain threat looks low at best for the MPX area. For the end of the week into next weekend, models agree on the wave that comes through mid-week closing off and slowing down over/near the Great Lakes, but differ on where this happens. Mean H5 patterns from the GEPS/GEFS/EPS would say this h5 low development happens to our east over the Great Lakes, so a soaking rain locally on Friday like the 11.12 GFS has looks pretty unlikely at this point. What does look likely is that we`ll see little in the way of airmass change next week, which means daily highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, with dewpoints and lows down around 60. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 A few showers across southwest MN through Monday morning, otherwise scattered-broken mid/high level clouds and light winds through the period. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5kts. WED...VFR, chc -TSRA late. Wind SE 5-10kts. THU...MVFR/VFR, sct -TSRA. Wind SE 5kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPG AVIATION...Borghoff