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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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184 FXUS63 KMPX 120810 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 310 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and pleasant through Tuesday night. - Best chance for rain over the next week comes Wednesday night. The threat for hazardous weather remains low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Welcome to the work week! Well enjoy a couple more days of quiet and pleasant weather before a relatively more active pattern sets up mid-week. The severe threat is expected to be low with any precipitation that occurs this week. Some patches of shallow morning fog are visible across the region thanks to the calm winds associated with our surface high pressure. Radar was picking up on an area of weak reflectivity over the Minnesota River Valley for a couple hours, but much of that has dissipated as of 2am. Some isolated showers and sprinkles are possible along the MN/IA border this morning, however the majority of precip will stay farther south into Iowa and Missouri. Tomorrow will be another partly cloudy day, with no precip expected. As the high pressure shifts east, winds will gradually increase and kick out of the south. This will help raise dewpoints into the upper 50s and lower 60s, and set the stage for rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday. The latest NBM continues to tighten up our window for rain, however it is still a broad timeline with western MN seeing it move in as early as Wednesday morning and western WI seeing it move out as late as Thursday night. The LREF probability for measurable precip suggests that much of the area will be waking up to light showers Thursday morning, which will continue throughout most of the day as the system slowly moves east. Current QPF looks to be in the 0.75-1.5 range for much of the area, although this will depend on the coverage and the low potential for locally higher amounts with any isolated storms that form (instability and sounding profiles continue to not look that impressive). As the mid level shortwave stalls just east of us, well likely end the week with similar conditions Friday through Sunday. Highs look to be in the upper 70s to low 80s and winds will generally be out of the north, which will methodically cut down on our dew points.There is a non-zero chance for some diurnally driven showers and storms, hence the 10-30% PoPs each day. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 A few showers across southwest MN through Monday morning, otherwise scattered-broken mid/high level clouds and light winds through the period. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5kts. WED...VFR, chc -TSRA late. Wind SE 5-10kts. THU...MVFR/VFR, sct -TSRA. Wind SE 5kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...Borghoff