115
FXUS63 KMPX 121738
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1238 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and pleasant through Tuesday night.

- Best chance for rain over the next week comes Wednesday
  night. The threat for hazardous weather remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Welcome to the work week! Well enjoy a couple more days of
quiet and pleasant weather before a relatively more active
pattern sets up mid-week. The severe threat is expected to be
low with any precipitation that occurs this week.

Some patches of shallow morning fog are visible across the
region thanks to the calm winds associated with our surface high
pressure. Radar was picking up on an area of weak
reflectivity over the Minnesota River Valley for a couple
hours, but much of that has dissipated as of 2am. Some isolated
showers and sprinkles are possible along the MN/IA border this
morning, however the majority of precip will stay farther south
into Iowa and Missouri.

Tomorrow will be another partly cloudy day, with no precip
expected. As the high pressure shifts east, winds will gradually
increase and kick out of the south. This will help raise
dewpoints into the upper 50s and lower 60s, and set the stage
for rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday. The latest NBM
continues to tighten up our window for rain, however it is still
a broad timeline with western MN seeing it move in as early as
Wednesday morning and western WI seeing it move out as late as
Thursday night. The LREF probability for measurable precip
suggests that much of the area will be waking up to light
showers Thursday morning, which will continue throughout most of
the day as the system slowly moves east. Current QPF looks to
be in the 0.75-1.5 range for much of the area, although this
will depend on the coverage and the low potential for locally
higher amounts with any isolated storms that form (instability
and sounding profiles continue to not look that impressive).

As the mid level shortwave stalls just east of us, well likely
end the week with similar conditions Friday through Sunday.
Highs look to be in the upper 70s to low 80s and winds will
generally be out of the north, which will methodically cut down
on our dew points.There is a non-zero chance for some diurnally
driven showers and storms, hence the 10-30% PoPs each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Most sites should remain VFR throughout the period. Calm winds
are expected with scattered mid to high level clouds. Broken
mid-level clouds are expected further south for KRWF & KMKT.
Skies will be mostly clear overnight with winds once again light
and variable. This will likely support the formation of patchy
dense fog at our WI sites (KEAU/KRNH). Non-zero chance for
patchy fog for our MN sites, primarily KSTC/KMKT/KRWF. Any
patchy fog that forms should mix out shortly after sunrise
Tuesday. Winds will begin to increase by mid-morning and turn
out of the southeast with SCT-BKN lower mid-level clouds moving
into SW MN.


KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, chc -TSRA late. Wind SE 5-10kts.
THU...MVFR/VFR, sct -TSRA. Wind SE 5kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5kts. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BPH