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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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812 FXUS63 KMPX 170614 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 114 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers linger into Saturday for eastern MN and western WI - Dry weather expected most of the next week, with temperatures close to normal && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 SPC mesoanalysis this afternoon shows a stacked low near the western tip of Lake Superior. Moist cyclonic flow around this low has resulted in the widespread showers we are seeing on radar this afternoon. These showers are being primarily driven by diurnal destabilization, so once the sun sets, these showers will dissipate. We will continue to see batches of cloud cover rotate around the low through the night, which could result in the stray shower occurring, but for the most part we are expecting dry conditions. Diurnal destabilization picks up again on Saturday, which will again initiate scattered showers. However, there will be some differences with what we see on Saturday from what is happening today. First, the low will be farther east, which means the shower threat will only cover eastern MN and western WI. In addition, the coverage is not expected to be as widespread on Saturday when compared to what we are seeing this afternoon. Sunday through next week, the weather turns quiet. As the upper low bringing us the rain today moves east through the weekend, it will be replaced by upper level ridging that will remain centered over the central CONUS through the course of next week. Besides the upper ridging, at the surface, a dry high pressure will remain centered over the Great Lakes. The net result is what looks to be another several day stretch of dry weather with temperatures near normal. Any precipitation next week would come from a shortwave or weak surface front that will be fading away as they encounter our ridge and dry surface high. The NBM reflects this a long run of non-mentionable PoPs (less than 15%) next week. There are signs that we may start to work some warmer air up here for the opening weekend of the State Fair, but it does not look like it would be anything significant in terms of heat, just the potential for highs to reach more into the mid/upper 80s. By the end of next week the normal highs are already back down to 80 as summer slowly begins to fade away. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Ceilings will continue to gradually drop into MVFR range overnight tonight, potentially hitting IFR in pockets around sunrise into late morning. Ceilings will then start to slowly lift through the afternoon hours, but additional isolated to scattered light rain showers will dot the area this afternoon as the upper level circulation will be slow to exit eastward. Skies will clear out this evening through Sunday morning as high pressure slowly arrives from the west. Winds will be mainly from the NW at 10kts or less throughout. KMSP...MVFR ceilings overnight will transition to IFR through sunrise, then back to MVFR during the day today. A few showers are possible prior to daybreak but a better chance for scattered showers comes this afternoon. Nothing heavy or persistent, similar to yesterday. Conditions will then improve late this afternoon through tonight to VFR. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind E 5 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind S 10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPG AVIATION...JPC