812
FXUS63 KMPX 170614
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
114 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers linger into Saturday for eastern MN and western WI

- Dry weather expected most of the next week, with temperatures
  close to normal

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

SPC mesoanalysis this afternoon shows a stacked low near the
western tip of Lake Superior. Moist cyclonic flow around this
low has resulted in the widespread showers we are seeing on
radar this afternoon. These showers are being primarily driven
by diurnal destabilization, so once the sun sets, these showers
will dissipate. We will continue to see batches of cloud cover
rotate around the low through the night, which could result in
the stray shower occurring, but for the most part we are
expecting dry conditions. Diurnal destabilization picks up
again on Saturday, which will again initiate scattered showers.
However, there will be some differences with what we see on
Saturday from what is happening today. First, the low will be
farther east, which means the shower threat will only cover
eastern MN and western WI. In addition, the coverage is not
expected to be as widespread on Saturday when compared to what
we are seeing this afternoon.

Sunday through next week, the weather turns quiet. As the upper
low bringing us the rain today moves east through the weekend,
it will be replaced by upper level ridging that will remain
centered over the central CONUS through the course of next week.
Besides the upper ridging, at the surface, a dry high pressure
will remain centered over the Great Lakes. The net result is
what looks to be another several day stretch of dry weather with
temperatures near normal. Any precipitation next week would
come from a shortwave or weak surface front that will be fading
away as they encounter our ridge and dry surface high. The NBM
reflects this a long run of non-mentionable PoPs (less than 15%)
next week. There are signs that we may start to work some
warmer air up here for the opening weekend of the State Fair,
but it does not look like it would be anything significant in
terms of heat, just the potential for highs to reach more into
the mid/upper 80s. By the end of next week the normal highs are
already back down to 80 as summer slowly begins to fade away.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Ceilings will continue to gradually drop into MVFR range
overnight tonight, potentially hitting IFR in pockets around
sunrise into late morning. Ceilings will then start to slowly
lift through the afternoon hours, but additional isolated to
scattered light rain showers will dot the area this afternoon as
the upper level circulation will be slow to exit eastward. Skies
will clear out this evening through Sunday morning as high
pressure slowly arrives from the west. Winds will be mainly from
the NW at 10kts or less throughout.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings overnight will transition to IFR through
sunrise, then back to MVFR during the day today. A few showers
are possible prior to daybreak but a better chance for scattered
showers comes this afternoon. Nothing heavy or persistent,
similar to yesterday. Conditions will then improve late this
afternoon through tonight to VFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind E 5 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind S 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...JPC