946
FXUS63 KMPX 122003
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
303 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers across west-central WI and south-central MN this
  afternoon.

- Quiet and pleasant through Wednesday.

- Increasing confidence for widespread rain Wednesday night into
  Thursday across the region. The threat for severe weather
  remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Visible satellite highlights a scattered CU field across northern
Minnesota and Wisconsin. There is another CU field over SW Minnesota
with mostly clear skies between the two areas of fair weather CU. A
few CU have become more agitated over the past hour or so with
isolated radar returns across SC MN. These showers remain isolated
and a rumble of thunder can`t be ruled out. Isolated showers are
possible across west-central WI, too. Any isolated shower (or storm)
will dissipate as we near sunset this evening. The combination of
mostly clear skies and light & variable winds will support a patchy
dense fog threat across the region. Any patchy fog that forms should
scatter out shortly after sunrise Tuesday morning.

Tuesday will be another quiet and pleasant day. High temperatures in
the low 80s and partly sunny skies. Winds will ramp up after sunrise
out of the southeast as the sfc high exits east. This will start to
advect in some better moisture in the lower atmosphere ahead of our
next widespread rain event later in the week. Tuesday night should
be quiet for most but hi-res guidance suggests scattered shower
develop along the nose of the LLJ in eastern SD & ND. While the bulk
of these showers stay off to the west, a few may move into far
western Minnesota by Wednesday morning.

Let`s step back and look into the synoptic setup for Wednesday and
Thursday. Upper level ridge builds over the central CONUS with a
trough across the western CONUS. Mid-level heights show a broad,
negatively tilted trough  moving from the NW CONUS into the Upper
Midwest by Thursday morning. Both 500 & 700mb highlight SW winds
increasing across the Plains associated with the approaching
trough. Guidance highlights an impressive low level jet
Wednesday night from the southern Plains into the Upper MS
valley. At the sfc, our high pressure shifts east on Wednesday.
A developing low pressure will eject out of the Rockies into the
Dakotas Wednesday afternoon and track east into southern
Minnesota Thursday morning. Guidance brings an impressive slug
of moisture and forcing into the region Wednesday evening into
Thursday. QPF amounts suggest good odds at most locations
receiving 0.25 to 0.5" with higher amounts possible. We will
continue to monitor this system as it gets into hi-res guidance
territory. This will offer a better idea of where and what for
rain amounts. Severe weather is not expected with this system.
We`ll dry out into next weekend with temperatures staying
seasonable.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Most sites should remain VFR throughout the period. Calm winds
are expected with scattered mid to high level clouds. Broken
mid-level clouds are expected further south for KRWF & KMKT.
Skies will be mostly clear overnight with winds once again light
and variable. This will likely support the formation of patchy
dense fog at our WI sites (KEAU/KRNH). Non-zero chance for
patchy fog for our MN sites, primarily KSTC/KMKT/KRWF. Any
patchy fog that forms should mix out shortly after sunrise
Tuesday. Winds will begin to increase by mid-morning and turn
out of the southeast with SCT-BKN lower mid-level clouds moving
into SW MN.


KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, chc -TSRA late. Wind SE 5-10kts.
THU...MVFR/VFR, sct -TSRA. Wind SE 5kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5kts. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BPH