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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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521 FXUS63 KMPX 130503 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1203 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers across west-central WI and south-central MN this afternoon. - Quiet and pleasant through Wednesday. - Increasing confidence for widespread rain Wednesday night into Thursday across the region. The threat for severe weather remains low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Visible satellite highlights a scattered CU field across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. There is another CU field over SW Minnesota with mostly clear skies between the two areas of fair weather CU. A few CU have become more agitated over the past hour or so with isolated radar returns across SC MN. These showers remain isolated and a rumble of thunder can`t be ruled out. Isolated showers are possible across west-central WI, too. Any isolated shower (or storm) will dissipate as we near sunset this evening. The combination of mostly clear skies and light & variable winds will support a patchy dense fog threat across the region. Any patchy fog that forms should scatter out shortly after sunrise Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be another quiet and pleasant day. High temperatures in the low 80s and partly sunny skies. Winds will ramp up after sunrise out of the southeast as the sfc high exits east. This will start to advect in some better moisture in the lower atmosphere ahead of our next widespread rain event later in the week. Tuesday night should be quiet for most but hi-res guidance suggests scattered shower develop along the nose of the LLJ in eastern SD & ND. While the bulk of these showers stay off to the west, a few may move into far western Minnesota by Wednesday morning. Let`s step back and look into the synoptic setup for Wednesday and Thursday. Upper level ridge builds over the central CONUS with a trough across the western CONUS. Mid-level heights show a broad, negatively tilted trough moving from the NW CONUS into the Upper Midwest by Thursday morning. Both 500 & 700mb highlight SW winds increasing across the Plains associated with the approaching trough. Guidance highlights an impressive low level jet Wednesday night from the southern Plains into the Upper MS valley. At the sfc, our high pressure shifts east on Wednesday. A developing low pressure will eject out of the Rockies into the Dakotas Wednesday afternoon and track east into southern Minnesota Thursday morning. Guidance brings an impressive slug of moisture and forcing into the region Wednesday evening into Thursday. QPF amounts suggest good odds at most locations receiving 0.25 to 0.5" with higher amounts possible. We will continue to monitor this system as it gets into hi-res guidance territory. This will offer a better idea of where and what for rain amounts. Severe weather is not expected with this system. We`ll dry out into next weekend with temperatures staying seasonable. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Clear with light or no winds overnight. This setup favors radiation fog. Fog is most likely at STC, RNH, and EAU. It is possible, but less likely at other terminals. Do not expect dense fog. So more MVFR with a period of IFR possible. LIFR is not expected. Fog will clear up after sunrise with VFR and light winds for the rest of the day. KMSP...Fog and mist may form in the morning, but it should remain in the river valleys along the approach rather than at the terminal. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR, chc -TSRA late. Wind SE 5-10kts. THU...MVFR/VFR, sct -TSRA. Wind SE 5kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5kts. Wind NW 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...PV