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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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295 FXUS63 KMPX 131659 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1159 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and pleasant through Wednesday AM. - Increasing confidence for widespread rain Wednesday night into Thursday across the region. The threat for severe weather remains low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Another early morning of patchy fog across the region, with some locations in central MN dropping as low as 1/2SM visibility. This should clear out quickly after sunrise. Today will be the warmest we`ve had in over a week, with temps reaching into the 80s and dew points trending towards the 60s. H5 heights will continue to increase overnight into Wednesday ahead of broad troughing to the west, resulting in the muggiest conditions of the week especially for areas east of I-35. A combination of PWAT values up to 2" and a strengthening LLJ Wednesday PM will set the stage for a widespread rain event throughout Wednesday into Thursday, with the heaviest rain most likely over southern MN during Wednesday evening. Some isolated strong thunderstorms are possible during this time over southwest MN, however both instability and bulk shear will be limited. This is highlighted well by the 06z update to SPC`s Day 2 Convective outlook, which entertains a marginal risk along and south of the MN River Valley. It is worthwhile to point out the latest 00z run of the CSU MLP tornado probability forecast for Wednesday highlights an area of 2-5% likelihood of tornado formation for the same area. The most important thing to watch with this will be the specific track of the low pressure center and where the associated frontal boundaries set up Wednesday evening/night. The track of the low pressure center could also play a role in storm total QPF, which continues to teeter-totter up and down with each latest suite of model runs. Odds are still high of receiving widespread 0.25 to 0.5" (70-90%), with 1"+ possible (30-50%) especially across southern and eastern MN, and western WI. Flooding risk appears to be low given the long timeframe (24+ hours) of which these totals are spread across. Localized flooding for areas impacted by convective rain rates would be the main concern. Rain chances may linger into Friday, otherwise we`ll look to dry out heading into the weekend. Temperatures will be around average with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the low 60s to upper 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1154 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Areas of sct`d cu are expected to further develop this afternoon with at least FEW/SCT050 expected, with mainly RWF/MKT having a shot at a BKN cig. Otherwise just high clouds to deal with today amidst dry weather with only a slim chance for a repeat at some isolated showers that developed south of MKT yesterday afternoon. The better chance for showers arrives after the period, with showers slowly moving in tomorrow afternoon and evening. For now, kept the period dry, however based off how CAMs handle the timing we could end up bumping up -SHRA timing to arrive in western MN between 18-21z, MSP by 22-00z, and EAU by 00-02z. Once showers arrive, expect MVFR/IFR to persist through much of Thursday. KMSP...No additional concerns. Left out a mention of -SHRA towards the end of the period with timing looking to be arrival just before 00z right now. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR/IFR, -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind E to NW 10-15kts. FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NW 5-10kts. SAT...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NW 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...TDH