295
FXUS63 KMPX 131659
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1159 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and pleasant through Wednesday AM.

- Increasing confidence for widespread rain Wednesday night into
  Thursday across the region. The threat for severe weather
  remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Another early morning of patchy fog across the region, with some
locations in central MN dropping as low as 1/2SM visibility. This
should clear out quickly after sunrise. Today will be the
warmest we`ve had in over a week, with temps reaching into the
80s and dew points trending towards the 60s.

H5 heights will continue to increase overnight into Wednesday ahead
of broad troughing to the west, resulting in the muggiest conditions
of the week especially for areas east of I-35. A combination of PWAT
values up to 2" and a strengthening LLJ Wednesday PM will set the
stage for a widespread rain event throughout Wednesday into
Thursday, with the heaviest rain most likely over southern MN during
Wednesday evening. Some isolated strong thunderstorms are possible
during this time over southwest MN, however both instability and
bulk shear will be limited. This is highlighted well by the 06z
update to SPC`s Day 2 Convective outlook, which entertains a
marginal risk along and south of the MN River Valley.

It is worthwhile to point out the latest 00z run of the CSU MLP
tornado probability forecast for Wednesday highlights an area
of 2-5% likelihood of tornado formation for the same area. The
most important thing to watch with this will be the specific
track of the low pressure center and where the associated
frontal boundaries set up Wednesday evening/night. The track of
the low pressure center could also play a role in storm total
QPF, which continues to teeter-totter up and down with each
latest suite of model runs. Odds are still high of receiving
widespread 0.25 to 0.5" (70-90%), with 1"+ possible (30-50%)
especially across southern and eastern MN, and western WI.
Flooding risk appears to be low given the long timeframe (24+
hours) of which these totals are spread across. Localized
flooding for areas impacted by convective rain rates would be
the main concern.

Rain chances may linger into Friday, otherwise we`ll look to dry out
heading into the weekend. Temperatures will be around average with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the low 60s to upper
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Areas of sct`d cu are expected to further develop this afternoon
with at least FEW/SCT050 expected, with mainly RWF/MKT having a
shot at a BKN cig. Otherwise just high clouds to deal with today
amidst dry weather with only a slim chance for a repeat at some
isolated showers that developed south of MKT yesterday
afternoon. The better chance for showers arrives after the
period, with showers slowly moving in tomorrow afternoon and
evening. For now, kept the period dry, however based off how
CAMs handle the timing we could end up bumping up -SHRA timing
to arrive in western MN between 18-21z, MSP by 22-00z, and EAU
by 00-02z. Once showers arrive, expect MVFR/IFR to persist
through much of Thursday.

KMSP...No additional concerns. Left out a mention of -SHRA
towards the end of the period with timing looking to be arrival
just before 00z right now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR/IFR, -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind E to NW 10-15kts.
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NW 5-10kts.
SAT...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...TDH