087
FXUS63 KMPX 170846
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
346 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated rain showers today across eastern Minnesota & western
  Wisconsin.

- Extended stretch of dry & seasonal weather Sunday through most
  of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

The slow-moving surface low responsible for the last two days of
rainy weather has moved east of the area into the Great Lakes,
but residual cyclonic flow aloft still remains over the region.
Thus means we will see another day of isolated rain showers &
mostly cloudy skies, but the showers should mostly be limited
to eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin and will less numerous
compared to the last two days. The showers will again be
diurnally driven, with the morning looking mostly dry & the
best chance for a brief shower or two coming during the
afternoon & early evening.

Sprawling Canadian high pressure moves into the the region
following this system, with the high eventually stalling out
over the northeastern CONUS by midweek. This high will keep any
weather systems well to the south and west of the region, with
an extended stretch of dry weather expected Sunday through much
of next week. Any rain chances will depend on if any shortwaves
can displace the broad ridging over the central CONUS, which
looks unlikely until late in the week when the high begins to
slide off to the east. NBM PoPs still pepper some 10-20% chances
of rain in at times through the week, but these are basically
in-line with the climatological daily chance for rain for mid-
August. Temperatures will remain close to normal values with
afternoon highs around 80. Temperatures have a better chance of
being slightly cooler early in the week & slightly warmer later
in the week, when southerly flow develops on the west side of
the high.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Ceilings will continue to gradually drop into MVFR range
overnight tonight, potentially hitting IFR in pockets around
sunrise into late morning. Ceilings will then start to slowly
lift through the afternoon hours, but additional isolated to
scattered light rain showers will dot the area this afternoon as
the upper level circulation will be slow to exit eastward. Skies
will clear out this evening through Sunday morning as high
pressure slowly arrives from the west. Winds will be mainly from
the NW at 10kts or less throughout.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings overnight will transition to IFR through
sunrise, then back to MVFR during the day today. A few showers
are possible prior to daybreak but a better chance for scattered
showers comes this afternoon. Nothing heavy or persistent,
similar to yesterday. Conditions will then improve late this
afternoon through tonight to VFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind E 5 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind S 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...JPC