677
FXUS63 KMPX 112018
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
318 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon & evening - the
strongest could contain hail & gusty winds.

- Next chance for widespread rain comes Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Cooler temperatures late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

We are continuing to monitor thunderstorms that have initiated out
ahead a cold front this afternoon. So far best coverage of storms is
across portions of central MN and then again farther to our
southeast down into Iowa where a stationary boundary exists.
Additional convective initiation is anticipated to occur south and
west of the central MN activity as the frontal boundary pushes
eastward over the next several hours. The Storm Prediction Center
has mainted a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for the potential for
severe thunderstorms across NE MN down into SW MN through this
evening. The current convective environment does show suitable
amounts of instability and steeper low-level lapse rates. However
deep-layer shear is sub-par but a few funnel cloud or two cannot be
ruled out. Hi-Res CAMs continue to struggle on convection coverage
through the course of this evening. Thus tonight`s coverage for any
storms should be scattered and brief. For any storm that does manage
to become organized could produce brief periods of large hail and
damaging wind gusts.

Just behind this cold front, visibility observations across the
eastern Dakotas and western MN have come down quickly due to
wildfire smoke. The worst smoke impacts look to occur during
Saturday afternoon over central MN and southern MN and western WI.
The most concentrated smoke looks to be pinned to northern MN and
northern WI however the MN Pollution Control Agency has issued a
state wide air quality alert through Monday morning. Aside from
wildfire smoke, conditions will feel comfortable and less humid
aside from elevated smoky skies. Highs will range in the 70s with
dew points near 60. Summer conditions quickly return Sunday though
as temperatures return to the mid to 80s with slowly increasing dew
points.

Warmer and humid conditions will continue to return as the northern
CONUS enters zonal flow early next week. Temperatures will range in
the mid 80s to near 90 for a few areas by Monday and Tuesday
afternoon. Our next shot at convective development looks to occur
along a boundary in the Dakotas by Tuesday afternoon. As the evening
progresses into the overnight hours, this feature could develop into
an MCS before sunrise Wednesday. Guidance is still working on
tightening up timing but something at least to monitor over the
weekend. Much cooler temperatures in the forecast arrive mid to late
week. Especially for July standards, forecasted highs look to range
10 to 15 degrees below normal. So perhaps, the AC can get bit of R&R
before summer heat returns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Broken to overcast clouds continue from south-central MN into
western WI as cigs have struggled to lift. Expecting MVFR to
persist at RWF, MKT, MSP, RNH, and EAU for at least the next
hour before clouds finally lift and break apart enough to
achieve VFR this afternoon. Have maintained PROB30s for -TSRA
at all previous terminals but have delayed start time by a
couple of hours. Confidence of storm coverage within CAMs has
not increased from the previous TAF issuance. For MN terminals,
VFR conditions are expected tonight thru the remainder of the
period once the threat of precipitation moves east with the cold
front. For WI terminals, cigs look to fall to MVFR/IFR following
the front with CAMs and soundings suggesting visibilities
falling to at least 3 miles due to fog. For winds, terminals
currently to the east of the front will see their winds turn
northwesterly over time as the front passes. Winds will increase
to near 10 knots by late Saturday morning.

KMSP...Scattered clouds at 1500-2500 feet will likely continue
through this afternoon as clouds stream in from the southwest.
VFR conditions should prevail into this evening, though. Have
delayed start time of PROB30 for -TSRA until 04Z following
latest CAM guidance. Northwesterly winds could gust to knots
Saturday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...CTG