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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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653 FXUS63 KMPX 150209 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 909 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain increases in coverage this evening, with the bulk of accumulation falling from 7pm tonight through 7am tomorrow. Isolated thunder possible, but storms not expected. - Wrap around showers continue through Friday with dry weather returning this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 909 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Thunderstorm activity to our south has inhibited the expected spread of showers across Minnesota from the low level jet. A line of thunderstorms continues to track across South Dakota. With the environment in Minnesota largely undisturbed this evening this line should continue across Minnesota. Rain amounts will be lower than previously forecast, but rain is still expected as this line of storms moves into Minnesota. Limited instability will lessen the chances for thunderstorms as the line moves into Minnesota. Ample moisture with above normal precipitable water though should still allow for a period of moderate to heavy rain. The question remains for in coverage with how much of the area will see this rain as it tracks across the Upper Midwest. A spread remains in CAMs at this moment. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Showers have been slow to develop today which coincides with what CAMs were saying yesterday, as opposed to the much more aggressive and widespread global models. The culprit is relatively weak forcing as until now there has been limited shortwave energy within the upper level wave developing the surface low over us, which has kept widespread rain development out of the MPX area and confined to Iowa and the Dakotas. This is expected to remain the case over the next few hours as we await the nocturnal strengthening of the low level jet to bolster the forcing and produce more widespread showers across the area, which looks to arrive after 6-7pm this evening. Forecast soundings continue to point towards little to no instability potential, thus we are not expecting thunderstorms other than the odd rumble of thunder in primarily southern Minnesota as the jet strengthens this evening. The bulk of the precipitation is expected to fall between 7pm to 7am while the jet is strongest, with moisture rich air advecting northwards alongside the low level convergence characteristic of a low level jet. The expected rain amounts have decreased on the high end, with the expected range being 1/2 to 1 inch give or take a 1/4 inch or so depending on where some heavier showers set up overnight. Continued showers are expected on and off throughout Thursday as the upper level low occludes with the surface low spinning over the northern half of the state, with the MPX coverage area with an area of cold air advection aloft on top of relatively warm lower levels. Additional accumulations will only range from a tenth to a quarter inch through Thursday with additional hundredths from more isolated cold air showers on Friday. As the upper level low moves eastwards by mid to late Friday, showers will exit with it as a broad upper level ridge builds over the western CONUS with northwesterly flow alongside general subsidence. Shower chances appear scarce in this setup although we could get a few showers next week with potential shortwave energy drifting through the area on the eastern side of the ridge. Otherwise, expect similar temperatures to the previous couple of weeks with mostly upper 70s to low 80s for highs and diurnal cumulus being the majority of the cloud cover. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Ceilings will gradually lower this evening as the rain approaches, first into MVFR and then as the main round of rain arrives IFR. IFR ceilings will stick around for a while on Thursday after the rain comes to an end before lifting over the course of the afternoon and evening. VFR should return by Thursday night. Winds will remain gusty this evening into early tonight. Gusty winds will decrease overnight into Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but not likely enough for inclusion in the TAFs. If they were to occur it would be on Thursday morning. KMSP... Continued gusty winds this evening with a chance for some showers, but continued VFR. Tonight MVFR is expected with showers moving through. The main round of rain is expected on Thursday morning when IFR is expected. After the rain comes to an end, ceilings will rise back to VFR by the evening. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NW 10-15 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ UPDATE...NDC DISCUSSION...TDH AVIATION...NDC