016
FXUS63 KMPX 150732
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
232 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing widespread showers, with some embedded thunder,
  progressing east ahead of the boundary across central MN.

- Wrap around showers continue through tomorrow with dry
  weather returning this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a northward extension of mid and
upper level moisture, allowing widespread showers and storms to
blossom across the entire southern half of Minnesota early this
morning. Radar precip estimates are generally around 0.1-0.5"/hr
with this rain so far, but coverage is expected to decrease as
the boundary sags east into western WI late this morning.
Redevelopment of scattered showers today and tomorrow is
possible as the low occludes and cold air advects in aloft
behind the boundary. Additional QPF looks to be around
0.25-0.75", with most of it falling this morning ahead of the
front. As such, the next 48ish hours will likely feel pretty
cloudy and dreary, with highs in the low-mid 70s expected for
most.

The surface low over northern MN is expected to slowly slide
southeast through the weekend, while ridging also starts to build in
over the western CONUS. This will keep the Upper Midwest under
northwest flow and weak subsidence. Long range ensembles
continue to hint at the potential mid-late next week for
precipitation via upper level shortwaves. Meanwhile,
deterministic runs of the GFS and Euro both develop a cut off,
mid-level low that ejects down from Canada some time Wed-Thu.
QPF amounts are nothing to write home about, but this could be
our next time frame to keep an eye on. Expect seasonable
temperatures, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, lows in
the upper 50s to low 60s, and diurnal cumulus most
afternoons/evenings.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Ceilings will gradually lower this evening as the rain
approaches, first into MVFR and then as the main round of rain
arrives IFR. IFR ceilings will stick around for a while on
Thursday after the rain comes to an end before lifting over the
course of the afternoon and evening. VFR should return by
Thursday night. Winds will remain gusty this evening into early
tonight. Gusty winds will decrease overnight into Thursday
morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but not likely
enough for inclusion in the TAFs. If they were to occur it would
be on Thursday morning.

KMSP... Continued gusty winds this evening with a chance for
some showers, but continued VFR. Tonight MVFR is expected with
showers moving through. The main round of rain is expected on
Thursday morning when IFR is expected. After the rain comes to
an end, ceilings will rise back to VFR by the evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...NDC