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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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016 FXUS63 KMPX 150732 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 232 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing widespread showers, with some embedded thunder, progressing east ahead of the boundary across central MN. - Wrap around showers continue through tomorrow with dry weather returning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Water vapor satellite imagery shows a northward extension of mid and upper level moisture, allowing widespread showers and storms to blossom across the entire southern half of Minnesota early this morning. Radar precip estimates are generally around 0.1-0.5"/hr with this rain so far, but coverage is expected to decrease as the boundary sags east into western WI late this morning. Redevelopment of scattered showers today and tomorrow is possible as the low occludes and cold air advects in aloft behind the boundary. Additional QPF looks to be around 0.25-0.75", with most of it falling this morning ahead of the front. As such, the next 48ish hours will likely feel pretty cloudy and dreary, with highs in the low-mid 70s expected for most. The surface low over northern MN is expected to slowly slide southeast through the weekend, while ridging also starts to build in over the western CONUS. This will keep the Upper Midwest under northwest flow and weak subsidence. Long range ensembles continue to hint at the potential mid-late next week for precipitation via upper level shortwaves. Meanwhile, deterministic runs of the GFS and Euro both develop a cut off, mid-level low that ejects down from Canada some time Wed-Thu. QPF amounts are nothing to write home about, but this could be our next time frame to keep an eye on. Expect seasonable temperatures, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, and diurnal cumulus most afternoons/evenings. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Ceilings will gradually lower this evening as the rain approaches, first into MVFR and then as the main round of rain arrives IFR. IFR ceilings will stick around for a while on Thursday after the rain comes to an end before lifting over the course of the afternoon and evening. VFR should return by Thursday night. Winds will remain gusty this evening into early tonight. Gusty winds will decrease overnight into Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but not likely enough for inclusion in the TAFs. If they were to occur it would be on Thursday morning. KMSP... Continued gusty winds this evening with a chance for some showers, but continued VFR. Tonight MVFR is expected with showers moving through. The main round of rain is expected on Thursday morning when IFR is expected. After the rain comes to an end, ceilings will rise back to VFR by the evening. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NW 10-15 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...NDC