019
FXUS63 KMPX 151201
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
701 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing widespread showers, with some embedded thunder,
  progressing east ahead of the boundary across central MN.

- Wrap around showers continue through tomorrow with dry
  weather returning this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a northward extension of mid and
upper level moisture, allowing widespread showers and storms to
blossom across the entire southern half of Minnesota early this
morning. Radar precip estimates are generally around 0.1-0.5"/hr
with this rain so far, but coverage is expected to decrease as
the boundary sags east into western WI late this morning.
Redevelopment of scattered showers today and tomorrow is
possible as the low occludes and cold air advects in aloft
behind the boundary. Additional QPF looks to be around
0.25-0.75", with most of it falling this morning ahead of the
front. As such, the next 48ish hours will likely feel pretty
cloudy and dreary, with highs in the low-mid 70s expected for
most.

The surface low over northern MN is expected to slowly slide
southeast through the weekend, while ridging also starts to build in
over the western CONUS. This will keep the Upper Midwest under
northwest flow and weak subsidence. Long range ensembles
continue to hint at the potential mid-late next week for
precipitation via upper level shortwaves. Meanwhile,
deterministic runs of the GFS and Euro both develop a cut off,
mid-level low that ejects down from Canada some time Wed-Thu.
QPF amounts are nothing to write home about, but this could be
our next time frame to keep an eye on. Expect seasonable
temperatures, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, lows in
the upper 50s to low 60s, and diurnal cumulus most
afternoons/evenings.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Main swath of rain will continue to push eastward over western
WI this morning, with more scattered showers developing this
afternoon underneath the circulation of the upper level low.
Sites will generally remain IFR to low-end MVFR through early
afternoon, though there are a few pockets of VFR which could
result in some short-duration bouncing of ceilings. As the
showers develop later today, ceilings will gradually rise into
MVFR range then try to get back to VFR late this afternoon into
early this evening before the lower stratus once again develops
overnight tonight, especially for our northernmost TAF sites.
Winds will have appreciable directional changes, swapping to SW
then W as the upper system slides east. Speeds will generally
remain 10kts or less, especially once the larger swath of rain
exits the area.

KMSP...IFR ceilings to start with the bulk of the rain having
slid off to the east. Ceilings will slowly rise to MVFR levels
by around midday, potentially earlier than currently advertised.
Scattered, intermittent showers may drift across the MSP area
this afternoon but not expected to result in any degradation in
visibility. Ceilings will continue rising through MVFR, possibly
to VFR tonight, but then another round of IFR-level stratus
looks likely by the Friday morning push.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC