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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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019 FXUS63 KMPX 151201 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 701 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing widespread showers, with some embedded thunder, progressing east ahead of the boundary across central MN. - Wrap around showers continue through tomorrow with dry weather returning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Water vapor satellite imagery shows a northward extension of mid and upper level moisture, allowing widespread showers and storms to blossom across the entire southern half of Minnesota early this morning. Radar precip estimates are generally around 0.1-0.5"/hr with this rain so far, but coverage is expected to decrease as the boundary sags east into western WI late this morning. Redevelopment of scattered showers today and tomorrow is possible as the low occludes and cold air advects in aloft behind the boundary. Additional QPF looks to be around 0.25-0.75", with most of it falling this morning ahead of the front. As such, the next 48ish hours will likely feel pretty cloudy and dreary, with highs in the low-mid 70s expected for most. The surface low over northern MN is expected to slowly slide southeast through the weekend, while ridging also starts to build in over the western CONUS. This will keep the Upper Midwest under northwest flow and weak subsidence. Long range ensembles continue to hint at the potential mid-late next week for precipitation via upper level shortwaves. Meanwhile, deterministic runs of the GFS and Euro both develop a cut off, mid-level low that ejects down from Canada some time Wed-Thu. QPF amounts are nothing to write home about, but this could be our next time frame to keep an eye on. Expect seasonable temperatures, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, and diurnal cumulus most afternoons/evenings. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Main swath of rain will continue to push eastward over western WI this morning, with more scattered showers developing this afternoon underneath the circulation of the upper level low. Sites will generally remain IFR to low-end MVFR through early afternoon, though there are a few pockets of VFR which could result in some short-duration bouncing of ceilings. As the showers develop later today, ceilings will gradually rise into MVFR range then try to get back to VFR late this afternoon into early this evening before the lower stratus once again develops overnight tonight, especially for our northernmost TAF sites. Winds will have appreciable directional changes, swapping to SW then W as the upper system slides east. Speeds will generally remain 10kts or less, especially once the larger swath of rain exits the area. KMSP...IFR ceilings to start with the bulk of the rain having slid off to the east. Ceilings will slowly rise to MVFR levels by around midday, potentially earlier than currently advertised. Scattered, intermittent showers may drift across the MSP area this afternoon but not expected to result in any degradation in visibility. Ceilings will continue rising through MVFR, possibly to VFR tonight, but then another round of IFR-level stratus looks likely by the Friday morning push. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...JPC