059
FXUS63 KMPX 151724
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1224 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing widespread showers, with some embedded thunder,
  progressing east ahead of the boundary across central MN.

- Wrap around showers continue through tomorrow with dry
  weather returning this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a northward extension of mid and
upper level moisture, allowing widespread showers and storms to
blossom across the entire southern half of Minnesota early this
morning. Radar precip estimates are generally around 0.1-0.5"/hr
with this rain so far, but coverage is expected to decrease as
the boundary sags east into western WI late this morning.
Redevelopment of scattered showers today and tomorrow is
possible as the low occludes and cold air advects in aloft
behind the boundary. Additional QPF looks to be around
0.25-0.75", with most of it falling this morning ahead of the
front. As such, the next 48ish hours will likely feel pretty
cloudy and dreary, with highs in the low-mid 70s expected for
most.

The surface low over northern MN is expected to slowly slide
southeast through the weekend, while ridging also starts to build in
over the western CONUS. This will keep the Upper Midwest under
northwest flow and weak subsidence. Long range ensembles
continue to hint at the potential mid-late next week for
precipitation via upper level shortwaves. Meanwhile,
deterministic runs of the GFS and Euro both develop a cut off,
mid-level low that ejects down from Canada some time Wed-Thu.
QPF amounts are nothing to write home about, but this could be
our next time frame to keep an eye on. Expect seasonable
temperatures, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, lows in
the upper 50s to low 60s, and diurnal cumulus most
afternoons/evenings.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

This morning`s round of rain has cleared our eastern terminals
and some patches of MVFR/VFR cigs are evident on satellite
across south central Minnesota. Ceilings will continue to
improve through late this afternoon and evening with mainly VFR
cigs/vis. There`s a small chance for some isolated showers and
storms to develop through this evening, but VFR should continue
to prevail overall. Conditions will deteriorate by early Friday
morning as low clouds and showers overspread the area as the
surface low moves southeast from the Canadian border. Low end
MVFR/IFR will continue through the end of the period.

KMSP...Added a PROB30 for the isolated showers/storms this
evening. VFR conditions are expected through much of the
overnight hours before ceilings lower and showers arrive by
sunrise. Near IFR cigs are possible through tomorrow morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...Dye