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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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059 FXUS63 KMPX 151724 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1224 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing widespread showers, with some embedded thunder, progressing east ahead of the boundary across central MN. - Wrap around showers continue through tomorrow with dry weather returning this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Water vapor satellite imagery shows a northward extension of mid and upper level moisture, allowing widespread showers and storms to blossom across the entire southern half of Minnesota early this morning. Radar precip estimates are generally around 0.1-0.5"/hr with this rain so far, but coverage is expected to decrease as the boundary sags east into western WI late this morning. Redevelopment of scattered showers today and tomorrow is possible as the low occludes and cold air advects in aloft behind the boundary. Additional QPF looks to be around 0.25-0.75", with most of it falling this morning ahead of the front. As such, the next 48ish hours will likely feel pretty cloudy and dreary, with highs in the low-mid 70s expected for most. The surface low over northern MN is expected to slowly slide southeast through the weekend, while ridging also starts to build in over the western CONUS. This will keep the Upper Midwest under northwest flow and weak subsidence. Long range ensembles continue to hint at the potential mid-late next week for precipitation via upper level shortwaves. Meanwhile, deterministic runs of the GFS and Euro both develop a cut off, mid-level low that ejects down from Canada some time Wed-Thu. QPF amounts are nothing to write home about, but this could be our next time frame to keep an eye on. Expect seasonable temperatures, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, and diurnal cumulus most afternoons/evenings. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 This morning`s round of rain has cleared our eastern terminals and some patches of MVFR/VFR cigs are evident on satellite across south central Minnesota. Ceilings will continue to improve through late this afternoon and evening with mainly VFR cigs/vis. There`s a small chance for some isolated showers and storms to develop through this evening, but VFR should continue to prevail overall. Conditions will deteriorate by early Friday morning as low clouds and showers overspread the area as the surface low moves southeast from the Canadian border. Low end MVFR/IFR will continue through the end of the period. KMSP...Added a PROB30 for the isolated showers/storms this evening. VFR conditions are expected through much of the overnight hours before ceilings lower and showers arrive by sunrise. Near IFR cigs are possible through tomorrow morning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...Dye