802
FXUS63 KMPX 151916
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
216 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday
  evening.

- Dry weather returning this weekend and most of next week with
  temperatures near or slightly above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

First round of rain has pushed well to the east this afternoon,
but another few rounds are possible in the next 30 hours or so.
Scattered showers are beginning to develop across western MN,
with one fairly robust thunderstorm over far southeastern SD.
This activity is tied to a disturbance apparent in WV imagery
over eastern SD. The scattering of low clouds from earlier in
the day is allowing some instability to develop, which has built
to about 500 J/kg MLCAPE across far southern/western MN. The
isolated storm in SD is along the northern periphery of better
wind shear, so not really expecting much organized activity
north of that. Certainly far southern MN stands some chance at
a stronger storm early this evening, but the probability
remains quite low with less than 20 kts effective shear. Any
showers or storms from this afternoon will be mostly diurnal
and there should be a downtick in activity later this evening as
it heads east across eastern MN.

The stacked low over northwestern MN will slide southeast to EC
MN midday Friday. Wrap around showers ongoing over northeastern
ND should accompany it south with a good chance for showers
from west central to southeast MN Friday morning. Increased PoPs
to 60 percent in this corridor where CAMs are in fairly good
agreement. The showers will dissipate some during the midday
hours, but building instability could reinvigorate activity in
the afternoon on the backside of the low along the I-35
corridor. These showers and isolated storms should linger into
Friday evening, with some guidance even lingering them into
Saturday with the continued cyclonic flow.

High pressure will build into the Great Lakes and northeast for
much of next week. This should keep a tranquil pattern in place
with temperatures near or slightly above normal with broad
southerly flow into the Upper Midwest. By late next week or next
weekend, there are some indications of a system progressing
eastward across the northern U.S. which could bring some
renewed chances for precip.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

This morning`s round of rain has cleared our eastern terminals
and some patches of MVFR/VFR cigs are evident on satellite
across south central Minnesota. Ceilings will continue to
improve through late this afternoon and evening with mainly VFR
cigs/vis. There`s a small chance for some isolated showers and
storms to develop through this evening, but VFR should continue
to prevail overall. Conditions will deteriorate by early Friday
morning as low clouds and showers overspread the area as the
surface low moves southeast from the Canadian border. Low end
MVFR/IFR will continue through the end of the period.

KMSP...Added a PROB30 for the isolated showers/storms this
evening. VFR conditions are expected through much of the
overnight hours before ceilings lower and showers arrive by
sunrise. Near IFR cigs are possible through tomorrow morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Dye