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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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802 FXUS63 KMPX 151916 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 216 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday evening. - Dry weather returning this weekend and most of next week with temperatures near or slightly above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 First round of rain has pushed well to the east this afternoon, but another few rounds are possible in the next 30 hours or so. Scattered showers are beginning to develop across western MN, with one fairly robust thunderstorm over far southeastern SD. This activity is tied to a disturbance apparent in WV imagery over eastern SD. The scattering of low clouds from earlier in the day is allowing some instability to develop, which has built to about 500 J/kg MLCAPE across far southern/western MN. The isolated storm in SD is along the northern periphery of better wind shear, so not really expecting much organized activity north of that. Certainly far southern MN stands some chance at a stronger storm early this evening, but the probability remains quite low with less than 20 kts effective shear. Any showers or storms from this afternoon will be mostly diurnal and there should be a downtick in activity later this evening as it heads east across eastern MN. The stacked low over northwestern MN will slide southeast to EC MN midday Friday. Wrap around showers ongoing over northeastern ND should accompany it south with a good chance for showers from west central to southeast MN Friday morning. Increased PoPs to 60 percent in this corridor where CAMs are in fairly good agreement. The showers will dissipate some during the midday hours, but building instability could reinvigorate activity in the afternoon on the backside of the low along the I-35 corridor. These showers and isolated storms should linger into Friday evening, with some guidance even lingering them into Saturday with the continued cyclonic flow. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes and northeast for much of next week. This should keep a tranquil pattern in place with temperatures near or slightly above normal with broad southerly flow into the Upper Midwest. By late next week or next weekend, there are some indications of a system progressing eastward across the northern U.S. which could bring some renewed chances for precip. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 This morning`s round of rain has cleared our eastern terminals and some patches of MVFR/VFR cigs are evident on satellite across south central Minnesota. Ceilings will continue to improve through late this afternoon and evening with mainly VFR cigs/vis. There`s a small chance for some isolated showers and storms to develop through this evening, but VFR should continue to prevail overall. Conditions will deteriorate by early Friday morning as low clouds and showers overspread the area as the surface low moves southeast from the Canadian border. Low end MVFR/IFR will continue through the end of the period. KMSP...Added a PROB30 for the isolated showers/storms this evening. VFR conditions are expected through much of the overnight hours before ceilings lower and showers arrive by sunrise. Near IFR cigs are possible through tomorrow morning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...Dye