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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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568 FXUS63 KMPX 152353 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 653 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday evening. - Dry weather returning this weekend and most of next week with temperatures near or slightly above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 First round of rain has pushed well to the east this afternoon, but another few rounds are possible in the next 30 hours or so. Scattered showers are beginning to develop across western MN, with one fairly robust thunderstorm over far southeastern SD. This activity is tied to a disturbance apparent in WV imagery over eastern SD. The scattering of low clouds from earlier in the day is allowing some instability to develop, which has built to about 500 J/kg MLCAPE across far southern/western MN. The isolated storm in SD is along the northern periphery of better wind shear, so not really expecting much organized activity north of that. Certainly far southern MN stands some chance at a stronger storm early this evening, but the probability remains quite low with less than 20 kts effective shear. Any showers or storms from this afternoon will be mostly diurnal and there should be a downtick in activity later this evening as it heads east across eastern MN. The stacked low over northwestern MN will slide southeast to EC MN midday Friday. Wrap around showers ongoing over northeastern ND should accompany it south with a good chance for showers from west central to southeast MN Friday morning. Increased PoPs to 60 percent in this corridor where CAMs are in fairly good agreement. The showers will dissipate some during the midday hours, but building instability could reinvigorate activity in the afternoon on the backside of the low along the I-35 corridor. These showers and isolated storms should linger into Friday evening, with some guidance even lingering them into Saturday with the continued cyclonic flow. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes and northeast for much of next week. This should keep a tranquil pattern in place with temperatures near or slightly above normal with broad southerly flow into the Upper Midwest. By late next week or next weekend, there are some indications of a system progressing eastward across the northern U.S. which could bring some renewed chances for precip. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Main focus this evening is with ongoing convective showers to the east of STC and around EAU. Additional showers have developed west of the Twin Cities Metro and are forecast to weaken as they drift east this evening. Have converted PROB30s into a VCSH mention for the first few hours of the TAF at STC, MSP, RNH, and EAU. Isolated showers/storms will decrease in coverage with the loss of daytime heating. VFR across the region until early morning, when low clouds, showers, and visibility reductions are expected due to the southeastward advancement of a surface low. Widespread Low MVFR to IFR conditions expected, with the potential for LIFR ceilings/visibility. Winds will increase out of the west northwest Friday afternoon, with intermittent -SHRA and MVFR ceilings set to prevail through the end of TAF period. KMSP...Short term focus is on decaying showers west of the terminal at this hour. Opted to include VCSH in the first few hours of the TAF, as the isolated nature of the showers presents low confidence in impacts reaching the airport. Low ceilings arrive towards daybreak, with IFR conditions possible tomorrow morning. Winds will increase to 10-15 kts out of the W/NW Friday afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...Strus