568
FXUS63 KMPX 152353
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
653 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday
  evening.

- Dry weather returning this weekend and most of next week with
  temperatures near or slightly above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

First round of rain has pushed well to the east this afternoon,
but another few rounds are possible in the next 30 hours or so.
Scattered showers are beginning to develop across western MN,
with one fairly robust thunderstorm over far southeastern SD.
This activity is tied to a disturbance apparent in WV imagery
over eastern SD. The scattering of low clouds from earlier in
the day is allowing some instability to develop, which has built
to about 500 J/kg MLCAPE across far southern/western MN. The
isolated storm in SD is along the northern periphery of better
wind shear, so not really expecting much organized activity
north of that. Certainly far southern MN stands some chance at
a stronger storm early this evening, but the probability
remains quite low with less than 20 kts effective shear. Any
showers or storms from this afternoon will be mostly diurnal
and there should be a downtick in activity later this evening as
it heads east across eastern MN.

The stacked low over northwestern MN will slide southeast to EC
MN midday Friday. Wrap around showers ongoing over northeastern
ND should accompany it south with a good chance for showers
from west central to southeast MN Friday morning. Increased PoPs
to 60 percent in this corridor where CAMs are in fairly good
agreement. The showers will dissipate some during the midday
hours, but building instability could reinvigorate activity in
the afternoon on the backside of the low along the I-35
corridor. These showers and isolated storms should linger into
Friday evening, with some guidance even lingering them into
Saturday with the continued cyclonic flow.

High pressure will build into the Great Lakes and northeast for
much of next week. This should keep a tranquil pattern in place
with temperatures near or slightly above normal with broad
southerly flow into the Upper Midwest. By late next week or next
weekend, there are some indications of a system progressing
eastward across the northern U.S. which could bring some
renewed chances for precip.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Main focus this evening is with ongoing convective showers to the
east of STC and around EAU. Additional showers have developed
west of the Twin Cities Metro and are forecast to weaken as they
drift east this evening. Have converted PROB30s into a VCSH
mention for the first few hours of the TAF at STC, MSP, RNH, and
EAU. Isolated showers/storms will decrease in coverage with the
loss of daytime heating. VFR across the region until early
morning, when low clouds, showers, and visibility reductions are
expected due to the southeastward advancement of a surface low.
Widespread Low MVFR to IFR conditions expected, with the
potential for LIFR ceilings/visibility. Winds will increase out
of the west northwest Friday afternoon, with intermittent -SHRA
and MVFR ceilings set to prevail through the end of TAF period.

KMSP...Short term focus is on decaying showers west of the
terminal at this hour. Opted to include VCSH in the first few
hours of the TAF, as the isolated nature of the showers presents
low confidence in impacts reaching the airport. Low ceilings
arrive towards daybreak, with IFR conditions possible tomorrow
morning. Winds will increase to 10-15 kts out of the W/NW Friday
afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Strus