603
FXUS63 KMPX 171052
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
552 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated rain showers today across eastern Minnesota & western
  Wisconsin.

- Extended stretch of dry & seasonal weather Sunday through most
  of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

The slow-moving surface low responsible for the last two days of
rainy weather has moved east of the area into the Great Lakes,
but residual cyclonic flow aloft still remains over the region.
This means we will see another day of isolated rain showers &
mostly cloudy skies, but the showers should mostly be limited to
eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin and will be less numerous
compared to the last two days. The showers will again be
diurnally driven, with the morning looking mostly dry & the best
chance for a brief shower or two coming during the afternoon
into early evening.

Sprawling Canadian high pressure moves into the region following
this system, with the high eventually stalling out over the
northeastern CONUS by midweek. This high will keep any weather
systems well to the south and west of the region, with an
extended stretch of dry weather expected Sunday through much of
next week. Any rain chances will depend on if any shortwaves can
displace the broad ridging over the central CONUS, which looks
unlikely until late in the week when the high begins to slide
off to the east. NBM PoPs still pepper some 10-20% chances of
rain in at times through the week, but these are basically in-
line with the climatological daily chance for rain for mid-
August. Temperatures will remain close to normal values with
afternoon highs around 80. Temperatures have a better chance of
being slightly cooler early in the week then slightly warmer
later in the week, when southerly flow develops on the west side
of the high.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

MVFR ceilings at initialization time may drop at times to IFR
through late this morning. Ceilings will then start to slowly
lift through the afternoon hours, but additional isolated to
scattered light rain showers will dot the area this afternoon as
the upper level circulation will be slow to exit eastward.
Skies will clear out this evening through Sunday morning as high
pressure slowly arrives from the west. Winds will be mainly
from the NW at 10kts or less throughout.

KMSP...IFR ceilings at the start will last to around 14z,
potentially 15z, then lift to MVFR by late morning. A few
showers are possible early on in this TAF set, drifting in from
the north, but a better chance for scattered showers comes this
afternoon. Nothing heavy or persistent, similar to yesterday.
Conditions will then improve late this afternoon through tonight
to VFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind E 5 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind S 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...JPC