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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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603 FXUS63 KMPX 171052 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 552 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated rain showers today across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. - Extended stretch of dry & seasonal weather Sunday through most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 The slow-moving surface low responsible for the last two days of rainy weather has moved east of the area into the Great Lakes, but residual cyclonic flow aloft still remains over the region. This means we will see another day of isolated rain showers & mostly cloudy skies, but the showers should mostly be limited to eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin and will be less numerous compared to the last two days. The showers will again be diurnally driven, with the morning looking mostly dry & the best chance for a brief shower or two coming during the afternoon into early evening. Sprawling Canadian high pressure moves into the region following this system, with the high eventually stalling out over the northeastern CONUS by midweek. This high will keep any weather systems well to the south and west of the region, with an extended stretch of dry weather expected Sunday through much of next week. Any rain chances will depend on if any shortwaves can displace the broad ridging over the central CONUS, which looks unlikely until late in the week when the high begins to slide off to the east. NBM PoPs still pepper some 10-20% chances of rain in at times through the week, but these are basically in- line with the climatological daily chance for rain for mid- August. Temperatures will remain close to normal values with afternoon highs around 80. Temperatures have a better chance of being slightly cooler early in the week then slightly warmer later in the week, when southerly flow develops on the west side of the high. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 MVFR ceilings at initialization time may drop at times to IFR through late this morning. Ceilings will then start to slowly lift through the afternoon hours, but additional isolated to scattered light rain showers will dot the area this afternoon as the upper level circulation will be slow to exit eastward. Skies will clear out this evening through Sunday morning as high pressure slowly arrives from the west. Winds will be mainly from the NW at 10kts or less throughout. KMSP...IFR ceilings at the start will last to around 14z, potentially 15z, then lift to MVFR by late morning. A few showers are possible early on in this TAF set, drifting in from the north, but a better chance for scattered showers comes this afternoon. Nothing heavy or persistent, similar to yesterday. Conditions will then improve late this afternoon through tonight to VFR. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind E 5 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind S 10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...JPC